A multi-model analysis of the EU's path to net zero
- Boitier, Baptiste1
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Nikas, Alexandros2
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Gambhir, Ajay3
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Koasidis, Konstantinos2
- Elia, Alessia4
- Al-Dabbas, Khaled5
- Şirin, Alibaş5
- Campagnolo, Lorenza6, 7
- Chiodi, Alessandro4
- Delpiazzo, Elisa6, 7
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Doukas, Haris2
- Fougeyrollas, Arnaud1
- Gargiulo, Maurizio4
- Le Mouël, Pierre1
- Felix, Neuner5
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Perdana, Sigit8
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van de Ven, Dirk-Jan9
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Vielle, Marc8
- Zagamé, Paul1
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Shivika, Mittal3
- 1. SEURECO Sarl, Paris 75009, France
- 2. Energy Policy Unit, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, Athens, Greece
- 3. Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London, London, UK
- 4. E4SMA S.r.l., Turin 10144, Italy
- 5. Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI, Karlsruhe 76139, Germany
- 6. Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC), Venice-Mestre 30175, Italy
- 7. European Institute on Economics and the Environment (EIEE), Venice-Mestre 30175, Italy
- 8. École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), Lausanne 1015, Switzerland
- 9. Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3), Leioa, Spain
Description
The EU has committed to becoming a net-zero economy by 2050, with many member states having integrated this goal into national strategies. However, the bloc's path toward achieving these targets remains unclear. We use five whole-system climate-economy models and two sectoral models to explore how the EU can keep net zero within reach by mid-century, offering insights into intermediate milestones and implications at sectoral and national levels. Our results indicate that a 62% emissions reduction in the Emissions Trading System and 40% in the Effort Sharing Regulation, compared with 2005 levels, are in line with cost-optimal paths toward the bloc's 55% emissions cuts target by 2030. Bridging the gap with net zero in 2050 entails near-complete decarbonization of ETS, total decarbonization of electricity, and complete phaseout of unabated coal power by 2040, as well as rapid scale-up of negative emissions technologies and an 80% diffusion of renewables in the EU electricity mix by 2050.
Files
Boitier, et al. Joule, 2023.pdf
Additional details
Identifiers
Related works
- Is supplemented by
- Dataset: 10.5281/zenodo.10044337 (DOI)
Funding
- European Commission
- PARIS REINFORCE - Delivering on the Paris Agreement: A demand-driven, integrated assessment modelling approach 820846
- European Commission
- IAM COMPACT - Expanding Integrated Assessment Modelling: Comprehensive and Comprehensible Science for Sustainable, Co-Created Climate Action 101056306
- European Commission
- DIAMOND - Delivering the next generation of open Integrated Assessment MOdels for Net-zero, sustainable Development 101081179
Dates
- Available
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2023-11