Welfare Dynamics: Sustainable Rise or Fall among Cocoa Farming Households in Southwest, Nigeria

Little research currently exists on the welfare dynamics and its determinants on the cocoa farming households (CFHs). This paper fills the gap by proposing welfare category lines that can be estimated straightforward with panel household survey data collected in the two seasons, heavy and light cocoa harvesting seasons from southwest, Nigeria. Data on socio-economics, farm characteristics and household expenditures were subjected to descriptive analysis and Ordered Probit regression models. Empirical results reveal that a higher proportion of the households (89.1%) are male headed. The mean age and household size of respondents were 54 ±12.64 years and 7 ±3persons. The mean per capita household expenditure in Heavy and Light seasons were N38, 818.04±14,227.79 and N29, 194.68±17,792.80 respectively. A unit increase in literacy, land tenure, price stability, good harvest and extension are associated with likelihood of rise in welfare of CFHs by 0.05, 0.09, 0.08, 0.14 and 0.05; while increased poor access to credit, poor collateral and unfavourable government policies were related with no change in welfare by 0.04, 0.06 and 0.03; gender of household head, poor access to credit, poor collateral and unfavourable government policies are associated with increased fall in welfare of CFHs by 0.02, 0.03, 0.04 and 0.02 respectively in southwest, Nigeria. The study has revealed that if variables positive for rise in welfare are improved upon for cocoa farming households in the zone, then the production of cocoa and income of farmers can be sustainably improved.

Keywords: welfare dynamics, sustainability, cocoa