Causality in quantiles between crude oil prices and Latin American stock market

This study analyzes the influence of international crude oil price (West Texas Intermediate - WTI) over Latin American stock markets namely Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico and Peru under two perspectives: the dynamic linear and nonlinear models of Granger causality. The analysis period comprised 68 months of daily WTI and stock markets price returns in Latin American, over the period between May 1st, 2015 and January 15th, 2021. The results for the linear model of Granger causality showed, overall, no causality for Argentina, Chile, and Ecuador with WTI, but it was detected for Brazil, Colombia, Mexico and Peru. On the other hand, using the nonlinear model of Granger causality in quantiles, the results showed causality in all quantile intervals in Latin American stock markets, except for Colombia and Mexico at the extreme upper interval. Thus, the dynamic nonlinear method of Granger causality in quantiles showed a better approach to analyze two different markets in a time series, verifying its contemporary behavior, divided by quantile intervals within the analysis.