Comparing summed probability distributions of shoreline and radiocarbon dates from the Mesolithic Skagerrak coast of Norway

By developing a new methodology for handling and assessing a large number of shoreline dated sites,
this paper compares the summed probability distribution of radiocarbon dates and shoreline dates along
the Skagerrak coast of south-eastern Norway. Both measures have previously been compared to elucidate
demographic developments in Fennoscandia, but these have not been based on probabilistic methods
for shoreline dating. The findings indicate a largely diverging development of the two data sets through
the Mesolithic. The number of shoreline dated sites undergoes some process of overall decrease through
the period, while the radiocarbon data is characterised by a lacking signal in the earliest parts of the
period and then undergoes a logistic growth that quickly plateaus and remains stable for the remainder
of the period. Although the precise nature of this discrepancy will require further substantiation, we
tentatively suggest that while not devoid of a demographic signal, the number of shoreline dated sites
is heavily influenced by mobility patterns. Conversely, we also suggest that the lacking signal in the
radiocarbon data for the earliest part of the Mesolithic is in part the result of mobility patterns, but that
the radiocarbon data more directly reflects population dynamics.