USING REGRESSION AND FORECASTING METHODS TO PREDICT FUTURE BED OCCUPANCY RATE (BOR) IN COVID-19 MANAGEMENT: A CASE STUDY OF THE PROVINCE OF EAST JAVA

Abstract

The handling of the COVID-19 pandemic has become a serious challenge for health care systems around the world, including in East Java Province. One important indicator in measuring the availability of health care facilities is the Bed Occupancy Rate (BOR), which describes the use of hospital beds. This study aims to apply regression methods and forecasting techniques to forecast BOR for the next five years in the context of handling COVID-19 in East Java Province. This study used BOR's historical dataset and COVID-19-related data from previous periods as a basis for developing appropriate regression models. Then, forecasting techniques are used to forecast future BORs by considering factors such as trends in the spread of COVID-19, handling measures, and population development. The results of this analysis provide valuable insights for authorities and medical personnel in planning and managing hospital capacity more effectively. The research also provides insights into how changes in the pandemic situation can impact hospital bed usage and assist in strategic decision-making to deal with future challenges.