Towards Managing Uncertain Geo-Information for Drilling Disasters Using Event Tracking Sensitivity Analysis

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Towards Managing Uncertain Geo-Information for Drilling Disasters Using Event Tracking Sensitivity Analysis

by

Siamak Tavakoli

^1,*,

Stefan Poslad

²,

Rudolf Fruhwirth

³,

Martin Winter

⁴ and

Herwig Zeiner

⁴

¹

Computer Science Department, Maharishi International University, Fairfield, IA 52557, USA

²

School of Electronic Engineering and Computer Science, Queen Mary University of London, London E1 4NS, UK

³

Thonhauser Data Engineering GmbH, 8700 Leoben, Austria

⁴

JOANNEUM RESEARCH Forschungsgesellschaft mbH, 8010 Graz, Austria

^*

Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.

Sensors 2023, 23(9), 4292; https://doi.org/10.3390/s23094292

Received: 8 March 2023 / Revised: 11 April 2023 / Accepted: 18 April 2023 / Published: 26 April 2023

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Smart Sensors and Technologies for Natural Hazards Mitigation and Disasters Managements)

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Abstract

In sub-surface drilling rigs, one key critical crisis is unwanted influx into the borehole as a result of increasing the influx rate while drilling deeper into a high-pressure gas formation. Although established risk assessments in drilling rigs provide a high degree of protection, uncertainty arises due to the behavior of the formation being drilled into, which may cause crucial situations at the rig. To overcome such uncertainties, real-time sensor measurements are used to predict, and thus prevent, such crises. In addition, new understandings of the effective events were derived from raw data. In order to avoid the computational overhead of input feature analysis that hinders time-critical prediction, EventTracker sensitivity analysis, an incremental method that can support dimensionality reduction, was applied to real-world data from 1600 features per each of the 4 wells as input and 6 time series per each of the 4 wells as output. The resulting significant input series were then introduced to two classification methods: Random Forest Classifier and Neural Networks. Performance of the EventTracker method was understood correlated with a conventional manual method that incorporated expert knowledge. More importantly, the outcome of a Neural Network Classifier was improved by reducing the number of inputs according to the results of the EventTracker feature selection. Most important of all, the generation of results of the EventTracker method took fractions of milliseconds that left plenty of time before the next bunch of data samples.