Published July 23, 2023
| Version 1.0
Dataset
Open
Dataset corresponding to the « Reasons for concern » about climate change impacts from all IPCC reports (TAR to AR6)
Description
This data corresponds to all the "burning embers" diagrams for the "Reasons for Concern" published in IPCC reports (and the related paper Smith et al. 2009 for AR4) until AR6 (thus including TAR, AR4, AR5, SR1.5 and AR6). For TAR to SR1.5, the data is the result of extracting information from the original figures, as presented in the related technical document 10.5281/zenodo.3992856. As also explained in the Supplementary Information of Zommers et al. (2020), the data does not come directly from the IPCC, although it is based on the assessment provided in the IPCC reports listed in the references. For IPCC AR6, the source is the supplementary material of chapter 16. Details regarding specific values provided in the dataset are explained alongside the values in the main file: "RFCs-ALL-2023_05_12.xlsx".
The main file includes the parameters needed to produce a diagram that supplements figure 3 from Zommers et al. (2020) with AR6 data and the confidence levels from previous reports when available. The Excel files in RFCs-2023-UsageExamples.zip contain the same data with different parameters, so that uploading these files to the Ember Factory (https://climrisk.org/emberfactory) produces different figures - including a comparison between AR5 and AR6 (as in IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report, but with AR5 confidence levels included). The resulting diagrams are also provided.
Notes
As indicated in the Synthesis report of AR6 (IPCC, 2023), improved scientific understanding with time generally resulted in shifting risk level changes to lower global mean surface temperature changes (so that risks are higher at a given temperature). This is consistent with the conclusion made in Zommers et al. (2020) for the assessments up to SR1.5. A (relative) exception illustrated in this dataset is the change from SR1.5 to AR6 for RFC5 (large scale singular events): the transition to high risk starts at 1.0°C in SR1.5 and 1.5°C in AR6, most probably related, at least in part, to the assessment of ice-sheet related risks (AR6, chapter 16, section 16.6.3.5). However, discussing these changes is beyond the scope of this note. The objective of this dataset is to provide all the data related to the "burning embers" for the Reasons for concern from TAR to AR6 in a common format and with all uncertainty estimates.
Files
RFCs-2023-UsageExamples.zip
Files
(186.2 kB)
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Additional details
Related works
- Is source of
- Software: https://climrisk.org/emberfactory (URL)
- Is supplement to
- Dataset: https://zenodo.org/record/7796279 (URL)
References
- Zommers, Zinta, Philippe Marbaix, Andreas Fischlin, Zelina Z. Ibrahim, Sean Grant, Alexandre K. Magnan, Hans-Otto Pörtner, et al. « Burning Embers: Towards More Transparent and Robust Climate-Change Risk Assessments ». Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 10 septembre 2020. https://doi.org/10/gg985p.
- Philippe Marbaix. (2020). Reconstruction of data regarding the « Reasons for concern » about climate change from figures in IPCC and related publications. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3992857
- Based on a draft prepared by Q.K. Ahmad, Oleg Anisimov, Nigel Arnell, Sandra Brown, Ian Burton, Max Campos, Osvaldo Canziani, Timothy Carter, Stewart J. Cohen, Paul Desanker, William Easterling, B. Blair Fitzharris, Donald Forbes, Habiba Gitay, Andrew Githeko, Patrick Gonzalez, Duane Gubler, Sujata Gupta, Andrew Haines, Hideo Harasawa, Jarle Inge Holten, Bubu Pateh Jallow, Roger Jones, Zbigniew Kundzewicz, Murari Lal, Emilio Lebre La Rovere, Neil Leary, Rik Leemans, Chunzhen Liu, Chris Magadza, Martin Manning, Luis Jose Mata, James McCarthy, Roger McLean, Anthony McMichael, Kathleen Miller, Evan Mills, M. Monirul Qader Mirza, Daniel Murdiyarso, Leonard Nurse, Camille Parmesan, Martin Parry, Jonathan Patz, Michel Petit, Olga Pilifosova, Barrie Pittock, Jeff Price, Terry Root, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Jose Sarukhan, John Schellnhuber, Stephen Schneider, Robert Scholes, Michael Scott, Graham Sem, Barry Smit, Joel Smith, Brent Sohngen, Alla Tsyban, Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, Pier Vellinga, Richard Warrick, Tom Wilbanks, Alistair Woodward, David Wratt, and many reviewers. Summary for policymakers. Climate change 2001: Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. A Report of Working Group II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2021. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar3/wg2
- Schneider, S.H., S. Semenov, A. Patwardhan, I. Burton, C.H.D. Magadza, M. Oppenheimer, A.B. Pittock, A. Rahman, J.B. Smith, A. Suarez and F. Yamin, 2007: Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Chapter 19 in Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 779-810. https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ar4-wg2-chapter19-1.pdf
- Joel B. Smith, Stephen H. Schneider, Michael Oppenheimer, Gary W. Yohe, William Haref, Michael D. Mastrandrea, Anand Patwardhan, Ian Burton, Jan Corfee-Morlot, Chris H. D. Magadza, Hans-Martin Füssel, A. Barrie Pittock, Atiq Rahman, Avelino Suarez, and Jean-Pascal van Ypersele Assessing dangerous climate change through an update of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ''reasons for concern''. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 106, nᵒ 11 (17 mars 2009): 4133‑37. https://doi.org/10/fh754v
- Oppenheimer, M., M. Campos, R. Warren, J. Birkmann, G. Luber, B. O'Neill, and K. Takahashi, 2014: Emergent risks and key vulnerabilities. Chapter 19 in Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field, C.B., V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L. White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1039-1099.
- O'Neill, B.C., Oppenheimer, M., Warren, R., Hallegatte, S., Kopp, R.E., Pörtner, H.O., Scholes, R., Birkmann, J., Foden, W., Licker, R., Mach, K.J., Marbaix, P., Mastrandrea, M.D., Price, J., Takahashi, K., van Ypersele, J.-P., Yohe, G., 2017. IPCC reasons for concern regarding climate change risks. Nature Clim Change 7, 28–37. https://doi.org/10/f9tq3x
- Hoegh-Guldberg, O., D. Jacob, M. Taylor, M. Bindi, S. Brown, I. Camilloni, A. Diedhiou, R. Djalante, K.L. Ebi, F. Engelbrecht, J. Guiot, Y. Hijioka, S. Mehrotra, A. Payne, S.I. Seneviratne, A. Thomas, R. Warren, and G. Zhou, 2018: Impacts of 1.5°C Global Warming on Natural and Human Systems. Chapter 3 in: Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, H.-O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P.R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J.B.R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M.I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor, and T. Waterfield (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 175-312. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157940.005
- O'Neill, B., M. van Aalst, Z. Zaiton Ibrahim, L. Berrang Ford, S. Bhadwal, H. Buhaug, D. Diaz, K. Frieler, M. Garschagen, A. Magnan, G. Midgley, A. Mirzabaev, A. Thomas, and R. Warren, 2022: Key Risks Across Sectors and Regions. In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 2411–2538, doi:10.1017/9781009325844.025.
- O'Neill, B., M. van Aalst, Z. Zaiton Ibrahim, L. Berrang Ford, S. Bhadwal, H. Buhaug, D. Diaz, K. Frieler, M. Garschagen, A.Magnan, G.Midgley, A.Mirzabaev, A.Thomas, and R.Warren, 2022: Key Risks Across Sectors and Regions Supplementary Material. In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Available from https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/
- IPCC, 2023: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. A Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 36 pages. (in press).