Scenario Development Using Foresight Studies

PHIRI (Population Health Information Research Infrastructure) project aims to facilitate and generate the best available evidence for research on health and well-being of populations impacted by COVID19. Work Package 9 (WP9) of the PHIRI project (“Foresight: scenarios and modelling”) aims to gain insights into possible future health impacts of the COVID-19 outbreak by developing scenarios. A scenario is not a prediction, rather a consistent, plausible, and coherent description of the future that reflects on past perspectives, the present, and future developments, which can serve as a basis for action. WP9 follows a stepwise approach that started by learning about the foresight capacity and foresight capacity needs across European Members States (MS) in Task 9.1. Learning about capacity needs led to the development of a capacity building course in Task 9.2. The present task, Task 9.3, builds on Task 9.2 capacity building course to further build capacity by actually developing a foresight study. The present report provides an overview of the development, content, evaluation, and outcomes of ‘Develop your Public Health Foresight Study (PHFS)’ as the leading activity of Task 9.3. This activity aimed at giving participating researchers support and guidance in developing their own public health foresight study, including developing scenarios on different public health issues as well as assessing (the direct and indirect) effects of COVID-19 in their respective countries. ‘Develop your PHFS’ builds on the capacity building training course on foresight provided in Task 9.2 by enhancing and building capacity of the professionals participating in this activity. ‘Develop your PHFS’ was a hands-on approach on capacity building, by supporting participants in further understanding concepts and steps involved in planning and developing a foresight study. Another aim of ‘Develop your PHFS’ was to gain better understanding into the challenges and opportunities that professionals can face while conducting a foresight study. Eleven participants from eight Member States participated in our ‘Develop your PHFS’ activity. Their foresight studies included the following topics: mental health, lifestyle, and non-communicable diseases (NCD), and healthcare. ‘Develop your PHFS’ consisted of 12 monthly online sessions from January to December 2022 where concepts were revised, and participants received feedback on the progress of their PHFS. After practice country presentations (carried out in September and October 2022), in January 2023, participants were invited to present their PHFS during the last session ‘Country Presentations’. In this last session the emphasis was on reflecting on the scenarios developed and their possible outcomes, insights, and policy recommendations that derived from these scenarios. Participants’ progress differed due to time and resource constraints. However, most of the participants, nine out of eleven, were able to develop their foresight studies to near completion. The participants were able to develop scenarios, explore possible outcomes and challenges, and suggest possible policy recommendations to address the challenges. Two of the eleven participants progressed at a slower pace and hence did not develop any scenarios. However, in this report all eleven PHFS studies are presented regardless of the level of progress. Therefore, the resulting case studies presented show different levels of development. The main outcomes of the ‘Develop your PHFS’ activity are reflections of this hands-on approach exercise. During this exercise, the progress of each participant was monitored and insights regarding their level of understanding in implementing concepts, planning, and developing their respective PHFS were gained. The following were identified as challenges that the participants faced in developing their individual PHFS: - Formulation of concrete research questions and objectives 4 www.phiri.eu - Building a conceptual model as a framework and roadmap to conduct their study - Defining driving forces and their influence and impact on the given topic of study - Ranking trends (driving forces) by relevance and uncertainty - Formulating and developing scenarios based on the identified relevant and uncertain trends - Involvement of stakeholders since a foresight exercise is a participatory process by nature - Translation of outcomes of the foresight study to the users such as policy makers The exercise ‘Develop your PHFS’ was a helpful activity in further developing capacity in foresight across Europe (in this case, in eight countries). The participants appreciated the guided sessions, the networking platform, the materials, and the personal support they received. Moreover, the activity gave the organizers a better understanding of the challenges doing a foresight study. It made clear that Developing a PHFS is a resource intensive process with regards to time, capacity, use of tools, and engaging stakeholders. Moreover, the concepts used in the foresight methodology may be new and different from what public health professionals are used to. Learning and implementing new methodologies can come with challenges, including understanding of concepts, and advocating the use of foresight as a strategic tool in policy making. Moreover, one of the objectives of strengthening foresight capacity is to have better informed policy making. Moving forward to the last task of the PHIRI WP9, in Task 9.4 we will use the outcomes of this task by developing various policy briefs (on mental health, lifestyles and NCDs, and healthcare) that will include some of the findings from the various foresight studies.