The Gravity Model of Trade: The Case of Central and Eastern Europe

The main patterns of international trade in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe have been analysed in the paper. The gravity model, estimated for a large sample of bilateral trade flows for the analysed states, has been used as a benchmark. The model has been updated according to the modern conditions in the international economy. The emphasis has been made on the analysis of products' trade since the trade of services requires separate modelling. The purpose of the paper was to find the main factors that determine gravity trends in international trade in Central and Eastern Europe. It has been proven that the distance between countries and their gross domestic products are still crucial factors which determine trade flows between them. Additionally, the influence of the product structure of export has been considered. A higher share of value-added export increases bilateral trade between the countries. Common past for the analysed countries boosts trade between them because of the presence of historical trade traditions and the development of regional production agglomeration. It has been proven that the gravity equation remains a simple and reliable model of the factors which determine the trade between countries.