RFF-SP scenarios with FaIR v2.1

This dataset contains output from the 10,000 Resources for the Future Socioeconomic Projections, run with the FaIR reduced complexity climate model (v2.1.0) using an IPCC Sixth Assessment Report consistent calibration of 1,001 probabilistic ensemble members (v1.0). A total of 10,010,000 climate projections are produced. Climate projections are produced for 1750 to 2301. FaIR is run using stochastically generated internal variability.

The RFF-SPs contain CO2, CH4 and N2O emissions. The scenarios have been infilled using the Silicone package (Lamboll et al. 2020) to decompose the total CO2 into fossil and land-use components, and to infill emissions of other greenhouse gases and short-lived climate forcers, following the same strategy used to infill scenarios in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report Working Group 3 from a large database of integrated assessment model pathways (see Kikstra et al. 2022). To extend scenarios beyond 2100 - the time horizon of IAM pathways - the approach consistent with extending the SSPs for CMIP6 is used (Meinshausen et al. 2020, sec. 2.3).

Code and instructions to reproduce the results is available at https://github.com/chrisroadmap/rff-fair2.1.

Dataset contents:

• output[0-9].zip: RFF-SP projections, in batches of 1,000 individual netCDF files (data_output/stochastic/run?????.nc) where ????? is in the range 00001 to 10000). Each file contains:
  • Global mean near-surface air temperature, rebased to 1850-1900 mean
  • Ocean heat content change since 1750
  • Effective radiative forcing with respect to pre-industrial (IPCC Sixth Assessment Report Working Group 1 convention of anthropogenic components using a 1750 baseline and natural components using a long pre-1750 mean)
  • CO2 concentrations (ppm)
  • CH4 concentrations (ppb)
  • N2O concentrations (ppb)
• infilled_extended.zip: These are the infilled emissions used to run FaIR, containing 53 emissions species (data_processed/infilled_extended/emissions?????.csv). Time period covered is 2015 to 2300. Pre-2015 emissions can be obtained from the Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project, using the CMIP6 historical emissions from 1750 to 2014. Bridging from 2015 to 2020 was performed using SSP2-4.5, as in the original RFF-SPs for CO2, CH4 and N2O.
• ssp.zip: For completeness and comparison, the eight main SSP scenarios (ssp119, ssp126, ssp245, ssp370, ssp434, ssp460, ssp534-over, ssp585) are run with the same emissions scenarios and calibration dataset.

Notes about the data

• All variables in each file have dimension (timebounds, ensemble member) except for N2O which is unaffected by climate in this calibration of FaIR, having dimensions of (timebounds).
• Scenario 00001 runs from 1750 to 2301. Other scenarios run from 2020 to 2301, as the historical period is the same for every scenario. This approximately halves the size of the data output.
• Note that all variables in the output files are on timebounds. 2020 corresponds to 2020-01-01, 2021 to 2021-01-01, and so on. To approximate midyear values, take the mean of consecutive years. Infilled emissions are on timepoints, i.e. are representative of midyear values. See here for an explanation.