Case n°2: Economic impacts of climate change and adaptation under different socio-economic developments in Germany, lessons learned (in German) (D3.4.2)

UNCHAIN deliverable D3.4 is a collection of twelve reports describing the lessons learned in the twelve UNCHAIN case studies. This report presents the findings of Case Study 2, titled “Economic impacts of climate change and adaptation under different socio-economic developments in Germany.” It describes how the Impact Chain based Climate Risk and Vulnerability assessment was applied in the case study, characterizes the results, and details the achieved innovations of the Impact Chain based method. This case study considers future socio-economic developments and extends the impact chain approach by combining it with macro-econometric modeling and scenario analysis. In the case study, different climate impact chains covering three different components of critical infrastructure (transport, energy, health) were investigated in the context of different socio-economic developments. The socio-economic developments are mapped by three national socio-economic scenarios based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The future costs of climate change impacts and adaptation were assessed in a scenario analysis using the national macro-econometric model PANTA RHEI. The results are presented using socio-economic indicators such as gross domestic product so that they are comparable and can serve as decisionsupport information. The case study illustrates the need for dynamic risk assessments, as the macroeconomic costs of climate impacts and adaptation measures vary significantly between socio-economic scenarios.