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# THE OFFICIAL NUMBER OF COVID-19 DEATHS IS A MANY-FOLD OVERESTIMATION. The Math-logic Method to Measure the Real Number of Covid-19 Lethal Victims. The Guideline Analysis, the U.S. in 2020.

Damian Rafal; coll.

'EXTENDED ABSTRACT'

BACKGROUND: What do the data presented in the CDC tables „Deaths involving coronavirus” mean? The one objective information is: „xxx thousands of people have died, being (probably) infected with Covid-19”. But how many of these people would for sure still live if not Covid-19 (/as including into this group has been based on mechanical assumptions) ? The paramount aim of this paper is to present the math-logic method that makes possible to reveal the genuine number of Covid-19 lethal victims.

METHODS: The ideas for solutions are original, mathematical – logical, there were used constructed equations; a few riddles had to be solved. Calculations are in some places somewhat simplified, if the simplification matters only very little both to the final result and to the partial-result, to chase calculations. There were used the CDC, NSC, SSA and other agencies/institutions’ databases.

FINDINGS: Under 10% of those reported as Covid-19 victims, in the U.S. in 2020, died from Covid-19 complicity (giving ⩽30 thousands) and all the rest would have died in the same or in a very close to identical time anyway (also without Covid-19), because their deaths resulted from the normal age-structure of deaths in the United States, and from causes/conditions already existing before Covid-19, creating the expected average age of death* actual in the given year (*due to not-Covid-19 causes). Also, a conclusion about an overestimation could be made even from the fact that for a statistically big group of mostly real victims of the infection there should be the increased, against the comparative group, average number of chronic conditions, as the number and the health-state, at a given age, are correlated (the importantly increased number usually reflects the worsened health-state) and Covid-19 should have actively shortened life of its real victims; any increase in this number is not visible in the 2020-"deaths involving coronavirus group" (DIC). The 2020-DIC group is a mixture of genuine Covid-19 deaths and natural (not Covid-19) 2020-deaths, with the very strong domination of the second ones. (/please read also 'HINTS' -points 13, and 'ERRATUM and DEVELOPMENT' -F). The quick "result" of Part1, even if it is the starting point of the analysis, which analysis must be looked at as at the process of/with increasing correctnes, until the equilibrium point is reached, is an acceptable approximation of the most probable final result; the "result" of Part1 is not a result in the strict sense, it is more like the evidence that the official claim about the number of Covid-19 deaths is a nonsense -please read also 'HINTS' -point 10-b (!). The average age of genuine Covid-19 victims should be strongly lower than the official data says; with a high number of chronic conditions it matters little for further life expectancy of an individual if an actual age is 75 or only 67 instead [DuGoff -Table2], and there are few very old people in the growing U.S. population [= those at age ⩾80 have a 3.7%-share, and those at age 70-79, with its majority at age 70-74, have only a 7%-share].

INTERPRETATION: The official number of Covid-19 victims is in a vast majority “the double counting” of those who would die whatsoever in the same (or in a very close to identical) time also without Covid-19. The 2020-DIC group's construction is based on irrational mechanical assumptions resulting in the false removal of natural 2020-deaths from it; no mechanically built group can consist of only genuine victims of a new killing factor. The ex-post analysis is necessary to discover the real number of deaths due to Covid-19.

REMARKS: A newer version will appear soon.

LICENSE: Reuse needs a permission (until 2024, unless tha date is changed).

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