Quantifying the Effects of Drought Using the Crop Moisture Stress as an Indicator of Maize and Sunflower Yield Reduction in Serbia

The drought in Serbia in the summer of 2017 heavily affected agricultural production, decreasing yields of maize, sunflower, soybean, and sugar beet. Monitoring moisture levels in crops can provide timely information about potential risk within a growing season, thus helping to create an early warning system for various stakeholders. The purpose of this study was to quantify the level of moisture stress in crops during summer and the consequences that it can have on yields. For that, maize and sunflower yield data provided by an agricultural company were used at specific parcels in the Backa region of Vojvodina province (Serbia) for 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020. The crop moisture level was estimated at each parcel by calculating the normalized difference moisture index (NDMI) from Sentinel-2 data during the summer months (June–July–August). Based on the average NDMI value in July, the new crop moisture stress (CMS) index was introduced. The results showed that the CMS values at a specific parcel could be used for within-season estimation of maize and sunflower yield and the assessment of drought effects. The CMS index was tested for the current growing season of 2022 as an early warning system for yield reduction, demonstrating the potential to be included in a platform for digital agriculture, such as AgroSens, which is operational in Serbia.