THE EFFECT OF WORLD OIL PRICE FLUCTUATION, RUPIAH EXCHANGE RATE AND WORLD RICE PRICES ON RICE PRICES IN INDONESIA

Abstract

Movements in world oil prices and world rice prices as well as world finances tend to increase, which will create risks in controlling economic growth. The objectives of this study are: To explain the effect of fluctuations in world rice prices, world oil prices, and the Rupiah exchange rate with rice prices in Indonesia. Analyzing the response of the variables of world oil prices, Rupiah exchange rates and world rice prices, if there is a shock to the rice price variable in Indonesia. Explain the extent to which the variables of world oil prices, Rupiah exchange rate and world rice prices can explain fluctuations in rice prices in Indonesia. The data used is secondary data time series from the year 19 80 s / d 2019. The VAR model is used to analyze the relationship between world oil price variables, Rupiah exchange rate and world rice prices to rice prices. The Rupiah exchange rate has a positive and significant effect on the price of rice and corn, while the world oil price and world rice price have no significant effect on the price of rice and corn. The results of the impulse response function , shocks in the rupiah exchange rate resulted in high depreciation of rice and corn prices compared to world oil prices and world rice and corn prices, while the results of the Forecast Error Variance Decompotion showed that the rupiah exchange rate had a large contribution to rice and corn prices. Domestic compared to world oil prices and world rice prices