Info: Zenodo’s user support line is staffed on regular business days between Dec 23 and Jan 5. Response times may be slightly longer than normal.

Published September 8, 2022 | Version v1
Dataset Open

Files associated with: Migration-based simulations for Canadian trees show limited tracking of suitable climate under climate change

  • 1. Natural Resources Canada

Description

Aim

Species distribution models typically project climatically suitable habitat for trees in eastern North America to shift hundreds of kilometers this century. We simulated potential migration considering species' life history and traits for 10 tree species and their ability to track climatically suitable habitat.

Location

Eastern Canada, covering ~3.7 million km2

Methods

We simulated migration-constrained range shifts through 2100 using a hybrid approach combining projections of climatically suitable habitat based on two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5, RCP8.5) for three time periods and two species distribution modelling approaches with process-based models parameterized using data related to dispersal ability and generation time. We developed a unique 'migration kernel' that uses seed dispersal traits and observed migration velocities to obtain kernel shape and dispersal probabilities. We then calculated lags between the migration-constrained range limits obtained through simulations and limits of climatically suitable habitat.

Results

All species demonstrated northward range shifts at the leading edge of their simulated distribution through 2100, but the magnitude and rate of that shift varied by species and time period. Climatically suitable habitat limits were found to be north of simulated distribution limits across both RCPs, with lags increasing through time. On average, the simulated distribution that remained within climatically suitable habitat showed higher decreases under RCP8.5 than RCP4.5, with large areas of the rear edge of the simulated distribution becoming partially or completely climatically unsuitable for many species.

Main conclusions

Climatically suitable habitat limits projected for 2100 far exceeded migration-constrained range limits for all 10 species, particularly for temperate species. This study underlines the limited extent to which species will track climate change via natural migration. Integrating observed migration velocities, seed dispersal and generation time with SDM outputs allows for more realistic evaluations of tree migration ability under climate change and may help orient forest conservation and restoration efforts.

Notes

Raster files of outputs from simulations of tree species migration in Eastern Canada at a resolution of 25m. Simulations were conducted over 90 years, corresponding to the time period 2011 to 2100. Climatically suitable habitat was projected for 3 time periods (2011–2040; 2041–2070, 2071–2100) using 2 SDM approaches.

Species and species codes:

  • ABIBAL = Abies balsamea
  • ACERUB = Acer rubrum
  • ACESAC = Acer saccharum
  • BETALL = Betula alleghaniensis
  • BETPAP = Betula papyrifera
  • PICMAR = Picea mariana
  • PINSTR = Pinus strobus
  • POPTRE = Populus tremuloides
  • QUERUB = Quercus rubra
  • THUOCC = Thuja occidentalis

Species distribution models used: ANUCLIM or Maxent

RCPs used: RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5

GCM: Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2)

Funding provided by: Forest Change Initiative*
Crossref Funder Registry ID:
Award Number:

Files

ABIBAL_ANUCLIM_RCP45_final_mosaic-4.tif

Files (46.5 GB)

Name Size Download all
md5:dd870ecc928183fdbcea87f6092eefba
1.5 GB Preview Download
md5:11b493347ac785dc60db2651696c1581
1.1 GB Preview Download
md5:e3e4b5f4f82c9a365e598efa505e7796
1.4 GB Preview Download
md5:18955855857eb1d1bf54e2c5692abbbd
914.8 MB Preview Download
md5:868b7a36e729d0eabf1cc63be89d7184
917.9 MB Preview Download
md5:cdce202e3f59d4dd4588364f2321b017
881.0 MB Preview Download
md5:df4d03a550a893de270984f8f71c6096
918.0 MB Preview Download
md5:7e64d97a3e290b024637391258fe15ff
891.5 MB Preview Download
md5:43a50198ac1d243b2906f7f094db2071
669.9 MB Preview Download
md5:4afc1daf062f7ff488174a9d44068e44
643.5 MB Preview Download
md5:91a1ee65f0b202f9cde358f288183f29
666.9 MB Preview Download
md5:b9d4755a97bc73e4dfb9fa7f4335b975
630.9 MB Preview Download
md5:09b096a3c2c384ad7c8020d0e25ddb6e
908.4 MB Preview Download
md5:3c3ce6e7483bf06d38c2d63a053efdd9
679.0 MB Preview Download
md5:952b546c3dbf4d8df53364a8df5d66ce
854.7 MB Preview Download
md5:1b3b82b4131565c73282815702fa1214
563.6 MB Preview Download
md5:14b4455c15deab3578c9c76d9234e674
2.7 GB Preview Download
md5:98474fc8955abccda70834bac5fc3640
2.5 GB Preview Download
md5:d89d41ca8c7a835e3ead3e643fa65c98
2.6 GB Preview Download
md5:cf030f0a60cf83b1e4e74d887412d461
2.5 GB Preview Download
md5:38305bf207d3215f73bf6e5158782270
1.3 GB Preview Download
md5:c61cf621f7910d41f7e167fe30a0f1be
1.1 GB Preview Download
md5:d39d07a9284708abe348b4b7d1b21250
1.3 GB Preview Download
md5:8e112dd710ea8c2c5cd4592e63702395
1.0 GB Preview Download
md5:0bdba0659a80c208e6e9d7ce057353c7
1.2 GB Preview Download
md5:dca516daf9c65e14758eddcbec5420f5
904.2 MB Preview Download
md5:8c44e3601746b0c5df290908ef418d86
1.2 GB Preview Download
md5:7d2f37542c7c8e85406ef1c8b0ee2348
984.6 MB Preview Download
md5:8bb9b781609ca40709895bea2b342077
1.2 GB Preview Download
md5:a537e191dda87cd25dc9eac1e54e5929
1.2 GB Preview Download
md5:0e8a7ff705cc7029a9fb7e91c35bb3fe
1.2 GB Preview Download
md5:5f27ace34f1585abcaaf5d89ffc09664
1.1 GB Preview Download
md5:38dc9c8c34c7dd71647fabff79969db4
1.3 GB Preview Download
md5:ff8fff8f4877f0dec8393793358165e0
1.1 GB Preview Download
md5:8ed9549548ed58826ae449519a3dc14f
1.2 GB Preview Download
md5:2b7901ca0656d23e326aa7cd05b59dcc
1.2 GB Preview Download
md5:102bee0052f3a4f96273881a9bc0ea22
1.6 kB Preview Download
md5:08290c98b1cffbe7cc95dd0188a2fcb2
1.3 GB Preview Download
md5:ee431cba71d30433c436e979ca290702
599.2 MB Preview Download
md5:1bdb80dfaddc0d74b389f0dbeba4bde1
1.2 GB Preview Download
md5:c1065c1f791bafd349332078df888f3d
569.4 MB Preview Download