Land Use - Crop - Climate Scenarios Oudlandpolder
Description
Regionalized time series for 2020-2100 with a day resolution based on different combinations of 4 climate RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) and 4 Shared Social-economic Pathways (SSP) scenarios for the Oudlandpolder region in Belgium. This coastal lowland (polder) faces challenges related to climate adaptation and mitigation to be addressed by, amongst others, a proper balance of water distribution for the two main land use categories: agriculture and nature. The following variables are included:
- land use cover (agriculture and nature) in ha related to SSP
- crop fractions for 13 crops related to SSP
- crop factors Kc (dimensionless)
- precipitation in mm/day related to RCP
- potential evapotranspiration in mm/day related to RCP
- sea level in mm wrt January 1, 2020 related to RCP
- Waste Water Treatment Plant (WWTP) effluence ratio wrt to 2020
RCP scenarios: RCP 2.6; RCP 4.5; RCP 6.0; RCP 8.5
SSP scenarios: SSP1; SSP2; SSP4; SSP5. These SSP scenarios are based on consistent projections for land use change (agriculture vs nature) and crop schemes.
Land use cover change was modelled with the VITO spatial-dynamic RuimteModel (see references below).
Uncertainty in the RCP scenarios has been addressed by working with an ensemble of the following 8 climate models:
- BNU-ESM
- CSIRO-Mk3-6-0
- GFDL-ESM2G
- GFDL-ESM2M
- IPSL-CM5A-MR
- MPI-ESM-LR
- MPI-ESM-MR
- NorESM1-M
The scenarios point at potential seasonal water shortages for certain combinations of RCP and SSP scenarios, in particular during the dry summer season. Climate adaptation actions can also benefit to a limited extent from identifying the climate robust crop schemes.
For further information see:
- https://h2020-coastal.eu
- https://h2020-coastal.eu/publications/flipbook/171
- https://www.vlm.be/nl/projecten/Paginas/Oudlandpolder.aspx
- https://vito.be/en/spatial-model-flanders-ruimtemodel-vlaanderen
Files
H2020-773782 COASTAL MAL01 Scenarios Oudlandpolder.zip
Files
(40.3 MB)
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