Land Use - Crop - Climate Scenarios Oudlandpolder

Regionalized time series for 2020-2100 with a day resolution based on different combinations of 4 climate RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) and 4 Shared Social-economic Pathways (SSP) scenarios for the Oudlandpolder region in Belgium.  This coastal lowland (polder) faces challenges related to climate adaptation and mitigation to be addressed by, amongst others,  a proper balance of water distribution for the two main land use categories: agriculture and nature.   The following variables are included:

• land use cover (agriculture and nature) in ha related to SSP
• crop fractions for 13 crops related to SSP
• crop factors Kc (dimensionless)
• precipitation in mm/day related to RCP
• potential evapotranspiration in mm/day related to RCP
• sea level in mm wrt January 1, 2020 related to RCP 
• Waste Water Treatment Plant (WWTP) effluence ratio wrt to 2020

RCP scenarios: RCP 2.6; RCP 4.5; RCP 6.0; RCP 8.5

SSP scenarios: SSP1; SSP2; SSP4; SSP5.  These SSP scenarios are based on consistent projections for land use change (agriculture vs nature) and crop schemes.  

Land use cover change was modelled with the VITO spatial-dynamic RuimteModel (see references below). 

Uncertainty in the RCP scenarios has been addressed by working with an ensemble of the following 8 climate models:

• BNU-ESM
• CSIRO-Mk3-6-0
• GFDL-ESM2G
• GFDL-ESM2M
• IPSL-CM5A-MR
• MPI-ESM-LR
• MPI-ESM-MR
• NorESM1-M

The scenarios point at potential seasonal water shortages for certain combinations of RCP and SSP scenarios, in particular during the dry summer season.  Climate adaptation actions can also benefit to a limited extent from identifying the climate robust crop schemes.  

For further information see: 

• https://h2020-coastal.eu
• https://h2020-coastal.eu/publications/flipbook/171
• https://www.vlm.be/nl/projecten/Paginas/Oudlandpolder.aspx
• https://vito.be/en/spatial-model-flanders-ruimtemodel-vlaanderen