Electric Mobility Rollout Potential in Zambia (initiating the discourse on the missing links)

Transportation is responsible for 24% of the direct global CO₂ emissions due to fossil fuel combustion. The Paris agreement on climate change set the goal of limiting global warming to well below 2, preferably to 1.5 degrees Celsius, compared to pre-industrial levels. Electric Vehicles (EVs) are widely considered a powerful mitigation option to reduce CO2 emissions from buses, passenger cars and two and three-wheelers in the transport sector. The global push toward EVs is reflected in impressive growth rates of sales of electric vehicles (EVs) doubled in 2021 from the previous year. Nearly 10% of global car sales were electric in 2021, four times the market share in 2019. This brought the total number of electric cars on the world’s roads to about 16.5 million, triple the amount in 2018. However, this global push for EVs has not translated into similar numbers in the developing world. 

Currently, an increase in prices of gas and other fuel related commodities aligned to ICE mobility poses as one of the drivers to adopt e-mobility in Sub Saharan Africa (SSA) with majority of countries relying on imports to sustain their transport sector. In Zambia for instance, out of the 876,520 registered vehicles, 32% use diesel, 20% use leaded petrol, and 48% use unleaded petrol. Hybrid or electric vehicles are a rarity and make up less than 0.01% of the total. Moreover, the transport sector in Zambia is faced with compounding problems ranging from traffic congestion, environmental pollution and poor road networks. Consequently, the transition from ICE powered cars would be propelled by the level of demand from private and commercial vehicle owners. Therefore, it is imperative to start planning today on how the e-mobility diffusion will evolve and the nature of policy, regulatory framework and infrastructure development required. To appreciate the dynamics in this niche industry, the answers to the three questions below can help Zambia focus its attention in a timely manner by aligning the market design, energy legislation and energy policy.

1. What’s driving the e-mobility market globally?
2. What are the current gaps faced in Zambian context?
3. Can the e-mobility (or electric vehicle) value chain breed the right policy mix and eventually leverage opportunities in Zambia?

Even with the highlighted obstacles to rapid adoption in the writeup, the electric mobility space in Zambia is slowly gaining momentum. There is an increasing number of players coming in and driving the transition such as the Zambia Electric Mobility and Innovation Alliance (ZEMIA) and Cities and Infrastructure for Growth (CIG) Zambia. Therefore, for the country to develop in this nascent sector, efforts from both the private and public players must go towards realizing the following;

1. Public sector awareness of the transformative social, environmental and economic benefits yielded from developing the e-mobility sector in Zambia
2. Context specific and targeted strategy to build the e-mobility ecosystem that complements Zambia’s ambition to be the regional leader in battery (cell / pack) manufacturing. A strategy that would yield the highest economic and social impact
3. Development of appropriate regulatory framework and catalytic policy to drive Zambia’s near and long-term objectives towards becoming the regional leader in e-mobility
4. Formulation of necessary interventions to ensure social benefits are inclusively shared amongst the youth and more importantly women through the creation of thousands of green high wage and high skilled jobs.
5. Strengthening national narrative and mission branding for developing an e-mobility ecosystem to leverage available impact capital and developmental assistance to initially fund the transition.
6. Conducting feasibility and market assessments to assess the appropriate and necessary conditions and scope to support development of the local sector.