Seasonal hindcast of temperature and precipitation at a local scale by using TeWA approach

Methodology

Data set of simulated time-series of temperature and precipitation for the 1982-2020 period. Our statistical seasonal prediction model have two main components: a) the ocean-atmosphere coupling represented by correlations between surface variables with delayed teleconnections and b) the self-predictability of the residual anomalies by trends or cycles (quasi-oscillations).

The approach has three stages approach with two main predictor components, as mentioned above. The first two stages consist of separate predictions, one per each component, and the third stage is a combination of both predictions (Fig. 2): Teleconnection-based approach (Redolat et al. 2019, 2020) and a self-predictability by using Wavelet-ARIMA models (Conejo et al. 2005; Joo and Kim 2015). Therefore, the total method is a Teleconnection+Wavelet+ ARIMA (TeWA) approach.

References

Conejo, A.J., M.A. Plazas, R. Espinola, A.B. Molina, 2005: Day-ahead electricity price forecasting using the wavelet transform and ARIMA models. IEEE Trans. Power Syst., 20, 1035-1042, https://doi.org/10.1109/TPWRS.2005.846054.

Joo, T., S. Kim, 2015: Time series forecasting based on wavelet filtering. Expert Syst. Appl. 42, 3868-3874. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2015.01.026

Redolat, D., R. Monjo, C. Paradinas, J. Pórtoles, E. Gaitán, C. Prado-López, and J. Ribalaygua, 2020: Local decadal prediction according to statistical/dynamical approaches. Int. J. Climatol., 40: 5671–5687. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6543.

Redolat, D.; R. Monjo, J.A. Lopez-Bustins, and J. Martin-Vide, 2019: Upper-Level Mediterranean Oscillation index and seasonal variability of rainfall and temperature. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 135: 1059–1077. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2424-6.