Forest expansion for different warming scenarios simulated for 2010 to 3000 CE with LAVESI for Siberia

Simulations with the spatially explicit and individual-based Siberian forest model LAVESI (Kruse et al., 2016, 2018, 2019) were set-up for transect in four focus regions covering the East Siberian treeline and tundra area (details in Kruse & Herzschuh, submitted). The model was updated to include climate forcing data for 300-800 km long and 20 m wide transects necessary for simulating the forest development between the northern taiga forests and the coast of the Arctic Ocean. Forced with climate forecasts driven by relative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 and one with half the warming of RCP 2.6 named 2.6*. These were extended until 3000 AD either following the cooling of the scenarios after peak-warming, or with an arbitrary cooling back to levels of the 20th century.

During the simulations, three key variables were extracted in 10-year steps for 2000-3000 AD: single-tree line, treeline, and, forest line, which are defined as the northernmost position of stands with >1 stem (tree > 1.3 m tall) per ha, the northernmost position of a forest cover not falling below 1 stem per ha, and, the northernmost position of a forest cover not falling below 100 stems ha per ha (see for a graphical representation Fig. 2 in Kruse et al., 2019). The determined treeline at year 2000 was used as baseline expansion and subtracted from each following years’ values.

Furthermore, the tundra area was estimated for each of the four regions as the area between the treeline and the Arctic Ocean, based on interpolating the treeline position at the four transects over the complete modern treeline (Walker et al., 2005).

1. Content of Table 1 "Kruse_and_Herzschuh_2022_Forest_expansion_in_Siberia_2010_to_3000_CE.csv":
   • Column 1: Scenario: RCP scenario used
   • Column 2: Region: One of the four regions, from east-to-west Taimyr Peninsula, Buor Khaya Peninsula, Kolyma River Basin, Chukotka
   • Column 3: Year: Year in CE of the simulation in 10 year steps
   • Column 4: Forest line in m
   • Column 5: Treeline in m
   • Column 6: Single-tree line in m
2. Content of Table 2 "Kruse_and_Herzschuh_2022_Tundra_area_in_Siberia_2010_to_3000_CE.csv":
   • Column 1: Scenario: RCP scenario used
   • Column 2: Year: Year in CE of the simulation in 10 year steps
   • Column 3: Tundra area at region Taimyr Peninsula in km²
   • Column 4: Tundra area at region Buor Khaya Peninsula in km²
   • Column 5: Tundra area at region Kolyma River Basin in km²
   • Column 6: Tundra area at region Chukotka in km²
3. The zip-file "Kruse_and_Herzschuh_2022_Forest_expansion_maps_in_Siberia_2010_to_3000_CE.zip" contains shape files with the tundra area in 10 year steps starting in 2000 until 3000 CE
   • projection: Albers azimuthal equidistant projection centered at Longitude of 100 °E (PROJ4 string: "+proj=aea +lat_1=50 +lat_2=70 +lat_0=56 +lon_0=100 +x_0=0 +y_0=0 +ellps=WGS84 +datum=WGS84 +units=m +no_defs")

This study was supported by the Initiative and Networking Fund of the Helmholtz Association and by the ERC consolidator grant Glacial Legacy of Ulrike Herzschuh (grant no. 772852).