Crime Climate Impact Distributions

Percentiles of crime impacts due to climate change, organized by level of aggregation, climate scenario, and time period.

Crime impacts are estimated by applying future climate data to dose-response functions of property and violent crime rates, aggregated by population levels.

The uncertainty represented by these percentiles comes from a combination of statistical uncertainty in the dose-response functions, climate uncertainty across GCMs, and within-month weather realization, as sampled by Monte Carlo runs.

The archive contains four folders: county_20a with county-level impacts, state_20yr with state-aggregated impacts, nca_20yr with NCA-region aggregated impacts, and national_20y with nationally aggregated impacts.  Aggregation is weighted by crimes within each region.

The files are labeled as follow:

crime-<TYPE>-<RCP>-<YEAR><SUFFIX>.

The TYPE can be property or violent crime.  The RCP may be RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, or RCP 8.5; the years are "2020", for average impacts during 2020 - 2039, "2040" for impacts 2040 - 2059, and "2080" for impacts 2080 - 2099.  Files with the suffix 'b.csv' contain percent changes; those with the suffix '-absolute.csv' contain level changes in MT.

The columns of these files specify the region (using the FIPS code for counties), and the quantiles from 1% ("q0.01") to 99% ("q0.99").

This data is provided for non-commercial research and educational purposes.