Climatic similarity indices assist predictive modelling of alien insect threat in Antarctica

Resulting data from submitted paper.

Abstract:

Antarctic biodiversity is not exempt from the threat of biological invasions. Prevention can be cost-effective but challenged by the need to geographically identify potential routes of introduction: possible propagule sources and vulnerable areas to establishment. Under the climate matching hypothesis, species should have higher probabilities of establishing in a new area if climate closely matches that of their native range. We adopt a distance-based technique on a global scale to detect climate analogues with ice-free Antarctica and characterize both ends of potential routes. Using this biogeographical framework and insects introduced to Southern Ocean Islands as model organisms, we also derive three invasion threat indices to illustrate how this approach can assist risk assessments. Global potential sources of alien species able to establish in ice-free Antarctica exist across different polar and alpine regions which represent 11%. Two Coleoptera (Microplophorus magellanicus and Merizodus soledadinus) and one Hemiptera (Jacksonia papillata) already introduced to Southern Ocean islands ranked first in terms of their invasion threat to ice-free Antarctica. Coastal parts across the Western Ross Sea and the South Orkney Islands were revealed as the most vulnerable to alien species establishment. Under current increasing human presence, these regions require robust conservation protocols. With current available data, Antarctica’s conservation can keep benefitting from global biogeographical approaches.