Published September 1, 2020 | Version v1
Journal article Open

Determinants of the current and future distribution of the West Nile virus mosquito vector Culex pipiens in Spain

  • 1. Department of Wetland Ecology, Estación Biológica de Doñana, EBD-CSIC, C/ Américo Vespucio 26, Seville, 41092, Spain
  • 2. Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems Laboratory (LAST-EBD), Estación Biológica de Doñana, EBD-CSIC, C/ Américo Vespucio 26, Seville, 41092, Spain
  • 3. Animal Health Department, The AgriFood Institute of Aragon (IA2), Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, C/ Miguel Servet 177, Zaragoza, 50013, Spain
  • 4. Agència de Salut Pública de Barcelona, Consorci Sanitari de Barcelona, Plaça Lesseps 8, Barcelona, 08023, Spain
  • 5. Departamento de Investigación y Desarrollo (I+D), Laboratorios Lokímica, Polígono Industrial El Bony, C/42, n°4, Catarroja, Valencia, 46470, Spain
  • 6. Department of Animal Health, Veterinary Faculty, University of Extremadura, Av. de la Universidad s/n, Cáceres, 10003, Spain
  • 7. Service of Mosquito Control (Badia de Roses i del Baix Ter), Plaça del Bruel 1, Castelló d'Empúries, Empuriabrava, Girona, 17486, Spain
  • 8. Center of Rickettsiosis and Arthropod-Borne Diseases, Hospital Universitario San Pedro-CIBIR, C/ Piqueras 98, Logroño, La Rioja, 26006, Spain
  • 9. Quimera Biological Systems S.L., Pol. Malpica-Alfindén, C/ Olivo 14, Nave 6, La Puebla de Alfindén, Zaragoza, 50171, Spain
  • 10. Applied Zoology and Animal Conservation group, Department of Biology, University of the Balearic Islands (UIB), Ctra. de Valldemossa, km 7.5, Palma, 07122, Illes Balears, Spain
  • 11. Zoonoses and Public Health. COPAR Research Group, Faculty of Veterinary, University of Santiago de Compostela, Av. Carvallo Calero, Lugo, 27002, Spain
  • 12. Department of Anatomy, Cellular Biology and Zoology, University of Extremadura, Av. de Elvas s/n, Badajoz, 06006, Spain
  • 13. Centre de Recerca en Sanitat Animal (CReSA, IRTA-UAB), Campus de la Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Bellaterra, Barcelona, 08193, Spain
  • 14. Service of Mosquito Control de la Diputación Provincial de Huelva, Ctra. Hospital Infanta Elena s/n, Huelva, 21007, Spain
  • 15. NEIKER, Basque Institute for Agricultural Research and DevelopmentDepartment of Animal Health, NEIKER-Basque Institute for Agricultural Research and Development Basque Research and Technology Alliance (BRTA), Berreaga 1, Derio, 48160, Bizkaia, Spain

Description

Changes in environmental conditions, whether related or not to human activities, are continuously modifying the geographic distribution of vectors, which in turn affects the dynamics and distribution of vector-borne infectious diseases. Determining the main ecological drivers of vector distribution and how predicted changes in these drivers may alter their future distributions is therefore of major importance. However, the drivers of vector populations are largely specific to each vector species and region. Here, we identify the most important human-activity-related and bioclimatic predictors affecting the current distribution and habitat suitability of the mosquito Culex pipiens and potential future changes in its distribution in Spain. We determined the niche of occurrence (NOO) of the species, which considers only those areas lying within the range of suitable environmental conditions using presence data. Although almost ubiquitous, the distribution of Cx. pipiens is mostly explained by elevation and the degree of urbanization but also, to a lesser extent, by mean temperatures during the wettest season and temperature seasonality. The combination of these predictors highlights the existence of a heterogeneous pattern of habitat suitability, with most suitable areas located in the southern and northeastern coastal areas of Spain, and unsuitable areas located at higher altitude and in colder regions. Future climatic predictions indicate a net decrease in distribution of up to 29.55%, probably due to warming and greater temperature oscillations. Despite these predicted changes in vector distribution, their effects on the incidence of infectious diseases are, however, difficult to forecast since different processes such as local adaptation to temperature, vector-pathogen interactions, and human-derived changes in landscape may play important roles in shaping the future dynamics of pathogen transmission. 

Notes

This study was funded by projects PGC2018-095704-B-100, CGL2012-30759 from the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness, projects IB16121 and IB16135 from the Extremadura Regional Government and project PI18/00850 from Instituto de Salud Carlos III and European Union (ERDF/ESF, Investing in your future).

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ART_00048_Environmental Research_188(September 2020)109837_Determinants of the current and future.pdf

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References

  • Environmental Research 188,109837