EFSA Source Attribution Model (EFSA_SAM)

This model is a user-friendly interface for
attributing human cases of food-borne pathogens to the responsible food-animal reservoirs and/or food sources.
 The developed interface is called the EFSA Source Attribution Model (EFSA_SAM) and the
programming language used is Embarcaderos Delphi XE2 Enterprise. Based on the user’s imported data and
model selections, the interface generates a WinBUGS code that is executed in WinBUGS and the resulting data
are then imported from WinBUGS to the interface software for tabulation and graphical display. This approach
ensures consistency in both model and data setup, eliminating the need for user knowledge of WinBUGS syntax.
EFSA_SAM requires data by country on reported number of human cases by subtypes, food-source prevalences
by subtypes and food production and trade. Users can specify which countries, food sources and subtypes (e.g.
Salmonella serovars) to include in the model. The EFSA_SAM also includes the possibility to run different
scenario analyses, where the user can explore the effect on human cases by changing the prevalence of specific
subtypes in the included food sources. A critical part of all Bayesian models is to check for model convergence
and goodness of fit. The EFSA_SAM describes different ways for checking convergence and exploring model fit
providing the user with some tools to assess the validity of the model. The EFSA_SAM interface is delivered
with a user-manual, included in here as well.