Disposition effect, demographics and risk taking

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to investigate the association of demographic characteristics, market conditions and risk taking with the disposition effect using data on Brazilian individual investors.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses a unique data set with monthly data from June 2007 to February 2017 provided by one of the largest asset management firms in Brazil. This paper computes the proportion of gains realized and the proportion of losses realized to see if investors incur the disposition effect. This paper then performs logistic regressions to verify the association between investors’ disposition effects and demographic and portfolio characteristics. This paper analyses the prevalence of cognitive biases depending on market conditions (bull or bear markets) and include regressions by asset class as robustness checks.

Findings

This paper finds evidence that risk averse investors are more prone to the disposition effect, male subjects are less prone to this cognitive bias and age is not associated with the disposition effect. This paper observes that the tendency to incur the disposition effect decreases during bull markets but increases during bear markets. Also, this paper finds that sophisticated investors are more prone to selling winning assets and holding on to losses.

Research limitations/implications

First, paper gains and losses are based on the highest and lowest prices of the month and not on the price at the moment the sale occurred. Second, this paper had access only to end-of-month information, not to actual daily trading records. Third, because the data set relates to individual investors who trade investment funds, this paper cannot determine whether firm size is associated with the disposition effect. Fourth, age may not necessarily be a proxy for investor experience, so one should interpret the lack of significance for age in terms of generational differences.

Practical implications

This paper demonstrates that the disposition effect is prevalent even among wealthier and more educated investors with delegated asset classes. This paper also presents evidence on the association between demographic characteristics and cognitive biases considering a liquidity-constrained, highly volatile and developing market.

Social implications

This paper demonstrates that gender is an important characteristic to understand cognitive biases and that investor sophistication may not necessarily be an attenuation factor for the disposition effect in a liquidity-constrained market.

Originality/value

This is the first study to analyse the role of demographic characteristics and risk taking to explain the disposition effect using real information at the individual level about Brazilian investors. It is also the first to analyse the intensity of cognitive biases during bull and bear markets in the Brazilian economy.