Dryad
Published June 9, 2021 | Version v1
Dataset Open

Global maps of current (1979-2013) and future (2061-2080) habitat suitability probability for 1,485 European endemic plant species

Authors/Creators

  • 1. University of Montpellier
  • 2. University of the Basque Country
  • 3. Institut de Recherche pour le Développement
  • 4. Masaryk University
  • 5. Durham University
  • 6. University of Vienna
  • 7. University of Konstanz
  • 8. Ministry of the Interior and Kingdom Relations
  • 9. University of Flensburg
  • 10. University of Rostock
  • 11. University of Göttingen
  • 12. University of Picardie Jules Verne
  • 13. German Center for Integrative Biodiversity Research
  • 14. Aarhus University
  • 15. Czech Academy of Sciences
  • 16. Grenoble Alpes University
  • 17. Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research

Description

Aims: The rapid increase in the number of species that have naturalized beyond their native range is among the most apparent features of the Anthropocene. How alien species will respond to other processes of future global changes is an emerging concern and remains largely misunderstood. We therefore ask whether naturalized species will respond to climate and land-use change differently than those species not yet naturalized anywhere in the world.

Location: Global

Methods: We investigated future changes in the potential alien range of vascular plant species endemic to Europe that are either naturalized (n = 272) or not yet naturalized (1,213) outside of Europe. Potential ranges were estimated based on projections of species distribution models using 20 future climate-change scenarios. We mapped current and future global centres of naturalization risk. We also analyzed expected changes in latitudinal, elevational and areal extent of species' potential alien ranges.

Results: We showed a large potential for more worldwide naturalizations of European plants currently and in the future. The centres of naturalization risk for naturalized and non-naturalized plants largely overlapped, and their location did not change much under projected future climates. Nevertheless, naturalized plants had their potential range shifting poleward over larger distances, whereas the non-naturalized ones had their potential elevational ranges shifting further upslope under the most severe climate change scenarios. As a result, climate and land-use changes are predicted to shrink the potential alien range of European plants, but less so for already naturalized than for non-naturalized species.

Main conclusions: While currently non-naturalized plants originate frequently from mountain ranges or boreal and Mediterranean biomes in Europe, the naturalized ones usually occur at low elevations, close to human centres of activities. As the latter are expected to increase worldwide, this could explain why the potential alien range of already naturalized plants will shrink less.

Notes

This dataset includes raster files (.gri format) representing global maps of habitat suitability probability for the 1,485 most widespread European endemic plant species under current conditions (folder '1979-2013') and 20 future scenarios (folder '2061-2080'). Future scenarios have been generated for four representative concentration pathways (RCP) of both climate and land cover data (folder '26' for RCP 2.6, '45' for RCP 4.5, '60' for RCP 6.0, '85' for RCP 8.5) and five different general circulation models (CCSM4, CESM1-CAM5, CSIRO-mk3-6-0, IPSL-CM5A-LR and MIROC5). The spatial resolution of these maps is 0.4166667° × 0.4166667°. The geographic coordinate system is World Geodetic System 1984 (EPSG: 4326). 

Funding provided by: National Natural Science Foundation of China
Crossref Funder Registry ID: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001809
Award Number: 31901176

Funding provided by: Taizhou University
Crossref Funder Registry ID: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100016110
Award Number: 2018YQ001

Funding provided by: Basque Government*
Crossref Funder Registry ID:
Award Number: IT936‐16

Funding provided by: Grantová Agentura České Republiky
Crossref Funder Registry ID: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001824
Award Number: 19-28491X

Funding provided by: Austrian Science Foundation FWF*
Crossref Funder Registry ID:
Award Number: I2086-B16

Funding provided by: Volkswagen Foundation
Crossref Funder Registry ID: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001663
Award Number: A118199

Funding provided by: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft
Crossref Funder Registry ID: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
Award Number: DFG–FZT 118, 202548816

Funding provided by: Grantová Agentura České Republiky
Crossref Funder Registry ID: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001824
Award Number: 19-28807X

Funding provided by: Czech Academy of Sciences
Crossref Funder Registry ID: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100004240
Award Number: 67985939

Funding provided by: Villum Fonden
Crossref Funder Registry ID: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100008398
Award Number: 16549

Funding provided by: Basque Government
Crossref Funder Registry ID:
Award Number: IT936‐16

Funding provided by: Austrian Science Foundation FWF
Crossref Funder Registry ID:
Award Number: I2086-B16

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