A Systems Thinking Approach to a Transition Towards Renewable Energy in South Africa

South Africa continues to rely on a coal-intensive energy system to drive employment and growth of the economy. In light of the global climate crisis, this is no longer sustainable due to coal’s substantial carbon emissions. The rising concerns around energy security, coupled with the urgency for climate change mitigation, pose significant challenges to the country’s electricity sector. This research focuses on South Africa’s current electricity generation system. It investigates the opportunities, implications and barriers for renewable energy (RE) in response to climate change. Through a systems thinking (ST) approach, this dissertation develops critical intervention strategies to facilitate a just and fair transition away from coal. Finally, a high-level Theory of Change (ToC) framework consolidates research outcomes and maps out a transition pathway.

A systems analysis based on semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders indicates the socio-economic complexities of a low-carbon transition, such as the resultant job losses, destruction of mining communities, and lack of consensus-building between stakeholders and government institutions. Visualising the system through a causal-loop diagram, leveraging points within the system are identified. Eleven intervention strategies are developed to drive the advancement of RE and a possible just transition. The critical actions proposed include (i) unbundling Eskom’s monopoly into separate generation, transmission and distribution entities; (ii) establishing a free market with a diverse set of independent sellers to increase RE capacity and dynamism in the sector; (iii) developing a Just Transition Plan that addresses the human and environmental impacts. In summation, this dissertation identifies opportunities for future inter-sectoral coordination guided by the ST approach of this research, to inform a successful and just transition towards a new green economy in South Africa that benefits all.