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Journal article Open Access

Emerging dynamics from high-resolution spatial numerical epidemics

Thomine, Olivier; Alizon, Samuel; Barthelemy, Marc; Boenec, Corentin; Sofonea, Mircea T.

Simulating nationwide realistic individual movements with a detailed geographical structure is urgently needed to optimize public health policies. However, existing tools have limited resolution or can only account for a limited number of agents. We introduce Epidemap, a new framework that can capture the daily movement of more than 60 million people in a country at a building-level resolution in a realistic and computational-efficient way. By applying it to the case of an infectious disease spreading in France, we uncover hitherto neglected effects, such as the emergence of two distinct peaks in the daily number of cases or the importance of local density in the timing of arrival of the epidemic. Finally, we show that the importance of super-spreading events strongly varies over time.

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