About potential area of Patrinia sibirica (L.) Juss. in the Southern Urals

Patrinia sibirica is a mountain forest-steppe species. It is also a relic of the Pleistocene complex in the Southern Urals and included into the Red Data Books of the Republic of Bashkortostan and the Chelyabinsk Oblast. The potential range of Patrinia sibirica of the Southern Urals was analyzed using the maximum entropy method. Data on 32 georeferenced localities of this species in the Southern Urals and 30 localities in Western and Eastern Siberia were used as source material. Modeling of the potential distribution of the species was carried out using the program MaxEnt. The CHELSA database BIOCLIM set of climate variables and GMTED2010 global digital elevation model data were used as environment predictors. Habitat suitability was most influenced by 4 variables: seasonality of temperature, isothermality, maximum altitude, and precipitation in the warmest quarter. According to the model, the largest areas of suitable habitat for this species are concentrated along the peaks and upper slopes of the largest ridges of the South Ural Mountains and reach the northern boundary of Taganay National Park. The modeling has revealed suitable habitats in a wood-steppe zone of the Trans-Ural which are confined to the outcrops of granite and quartzite rocks among petrophytic and shrub steppes. The unavailability of the species in some places with suitable conditions for its growth may be due to its overgrowth by forest vegetation during the expansion of forests in the middle of the
Holocene and, in some cases, high anthropogenic impact.