The Importance of Bayesian Reasoning in Everyday Life and Science

The Importance of Bayesian Reasoning in Everyday Life and Science

Michael Gr. Voskoglou ¹ and Evangelos Athanassopoulos ²

1 Department of Mathematical Sciences, School of Technological Applications, Graduate Technological Educational Sciences Institute of Western Greece, Patras, GREECE.

2 Independent Researcher, Gastouni, GREECE.

voskoglou@teiwest.gr, mvoskoglou@gmail.com, evatha@gmail.com

ABSTRACT:

Bayesian reasoning has been proved to be an important component of the human cognition. The present work studies the importance of Bayesian reasoning in the everyday life providing a series of characteristic applications of the Bayes’ rule and the conditional probabilities. It is shown that the Bayes rule could be considered as an interface between the traditional bivalent logic and the Zadeh’s infinite-valued fuzzy logic. The importance of the Bayesian reasoning for the whole science is also theoretically justified.

Keywords:   probability, conditional probability, Bayes’ rule, scientific method

URL: https://www.ijedst.org/papers-published/ijedst-2020-volume-8-issue-2