Dataset Open Access

Paleoclimate Data-Model Comparison and the Role of Climate Forcings over the Past 1500 Years

Phipps, Steven J.; McGregor, Helen V.; Gergis, Joelle; Gallant, Ailie J. E.; Neukom, Raphael; Stevenson, Samantha; Ackerley, Duncan; Brown, Josephine R.; Fischer, Matt J.; van Ommen, Tas D.

The past 1500 years provide a valuable opportunity to study the response of the climate system to external forcings. However, the integration of paleoclimate proxies with climate modeling is critical to improving the understanding of climate dynamics. In this paper, a climate system model and proxy records are therefore used to study the role of natural and anthropogenic forcings in driving the global climate. The inverse and forward approaches to paleoclimate data-model comparison are applied, and sources of uncertainty are identified and discussed. In the first of two case studies, the climate model simulations are compared with multiproxy temperature reconstructions. Robust solar and volcanic signals are detected in Southern Hemisphere temperatures, with a possible volcanic signal detected in the Northern Hemisphere. The anthropogenic signal dominates during the industrial period. It is also found that seasonal and geographical biases may cause multiproxy reconstructions to overestimate the magnitude of the long-term preindustrial cooling trend. In the second case study, the model simulations are compared with a coral d18O record from the central Pacific Ocean. It is found that greenhouse gases, solar irradiance, and volcanic eruptions all influence the mean state of the central Pacific, but there is no evidence that natural or anthropogenic forcings have any systematic impact on El Nino-Southern Oscillation. The proxy climate relationship is found to change over time, challenging the assumption of stationarity that underlies the interpretation of paleoclimate proxies. These case studies demonstrate the value of paleoclimate data-model comparison but also highlight the limitations of current techniques and demonstrate the need to develop alternative approaches.

Files (48.5 GB)
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evp_o1.nc
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evp_o2.nc
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evp_o3.nc
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evp_og1.nc
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evp_og2.nc
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evp_og3.nc
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evp_ogs1.nc
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evp_ogs2.nc
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evp_ogs3.nc
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evp_ogsv1.nc
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evp_ogsv2.nc
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evp_ogsv3.nc
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psl_control.nc
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psl_o1.nc
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psl_o2.nc
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psl_o3.nc
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psl_og1.nc
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psl_og2.nc
md5:8bef397d390a7407a69b3b0846bcf852
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psl_og3.nc
md5:e40eace2f475488f37d19e4d672069c9
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psl_ogs1.nc
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psl_ogs2.nc
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psl_ogs3.nc
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psl_ogsv1.nc
md5:e67051a85797c5305e8027ee095e5576
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psl_ogsv2.nc
md5:6be044cd9c33dd62987a243659878cdc
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psl_ogsv3.nc
md5:213ab38df4734d45c7c5eca7548fb211
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README
md5:8a8bf7061331c2be0355871d6e6b60e8
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rnd_control.nc
md5:f13f8c7d6593ed26932d724775e59f47
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rnd_o1.nc
md5:e9371c4c337d565bb30def5309f671d8
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rnd_o2.nc
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rnd_o3.nc
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rnd_og1.nc
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rnd_og2.nc
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rnd_og3.nc
md5:c4878b81b04ebe8265a671082685d665
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rnd_ogs1.nc
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rnd_ogs2.nc
md5:50027894d51657c3878df961e254fcd3
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rnd_ogs3.nc
md5:3ff36bb6d51bfae3bfcbd01a4d42b1b7
344.2 MB Download
rnd_ogsv1.nc
md5:d7f42ac7f2b1f3d3e167a433febf4251
258.1 MB Download
rnd_ogsv2.nc
md5:b24c45e47a19edf5a764d8ccd52f1de0
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rnd_ogsv3.nc
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sss_control.nc
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sss_o1.nc
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sss_o2.nc
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sss_o3.nc
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sss_og1.nc
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sss_og2.nc
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sss_og3.nc
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sss_ogs1.nc
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sss_ogs2.nc
md5:ada1fb3f01e9d1e0aaff37ac0bee8e63
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sss_ogs3.nc
md5:ef0d9f9accd101f6ca153e2877426db3
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sss_ogsv1.nc
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sss_ogsv2.nc
md5:6cb24f14b65add94e23cc4c9cc8a9146
1.0 GB Download
sss_ogsv3.nc
md5:8a5efac770dc2808e69c321a34f2bcd8
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sst_control.nc
md5:b6c99672eb320b9786aaef0249a8bb46
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sst_o1.nc
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sst_o2.nc
md5:a2844d33ef644f064ecb5a22af02bef3
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sst_o3.nc
md5:90a5c477b76daac8e4fdd69a3bd15dac
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sst_og1.nc
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sst_og2.nc
md5:ee130c89e31e5e7b243b667ac3e8be03
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sst_og3.nc
md5:1fc247906f9e938a1bdece6840527b90
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sst_ogs1.nc
md5:091a83ff72b3a950031b9fbf33a998a2
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sst_ogs2.nc
md5:74ec98167f1f609b80cefe88e1f0f819
1.4 GB Download
sst_ogs3.nc
md5:129a02e599e750e6bdf720283e451157
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sst_ogsv1.nc
md5:c32418bd7325f05b8b4e3fbf62a57cf8
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sst_ogsv2.nc
md5:c5a30eed141c5fed48ee79c62677a9b8
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sst_ogsv3.nc
md5:1d2c465d0e1386c476a5bd074e550131
1.0 GB Download
tsc_control.nc
md5:9a1fce6828ee90b3c923958897a937c4
172.1 MB Download
tsc_o1.nc
md5:3eff214d3c603ebdfe2d17510844ec8c
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tsc_o2.nc
md5:d0c60c8a35cc5c22671dde513eda6649
344.2 MB Download
tsc_o3.nc
md5:4e67b4cdb26c9618f937f0feb4cd3aeb
344.2 MB Download
tsc_og1.nc
md5:ac8b07c96c0145d3b17d49231551534f
344.2 MB Download
tsc_og2.nc
md5:0f078a16f23cdccebfb544cc494195b4
344.2 MB Download
tsc_og3.nc
md5:05e8724b7448cd0f3f3f824fba1ecfce
344.2 MB Download
tsc_ogs1.nc
md5:533ea3c6ee7c4bae4d90de2a5926ac5c
344.2 MB Download
tsc_ogs2.nc
md5:bc88bf3db57012cac9ea7670d2975ffc
344.2 MB Download
tsc_ogs3.nc
md5:a28b30bc4acdf2cb21f87011ea2ee727
344.2 MB Download
tsc_ogsv1.nc
md5:eb708028771d7a5bdaefdfcde7c54300
258.1 MB Download
tsc_ogsv2.nc
md5:cff193c4879db0c0824c8254aa0d5ef6
258.1 MB Download
tsc_ogsv3.nc
md5:8a130ab8beb4993dd3c0832b7ab7ce92
258.1 MB Download
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