Arctic Sea Ice in CMIP6
Creators
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Notz, Dirk1
- Dörr, Jakob1
- Bailey, David A2
- Blockley, Ed3
- Bushuk, Mitchell4
- Boldingh Debernard, Jens5
- Dekker, Evelien6
- DeRepentigny, Patricia7
- Docquier, David6
- Fučkar, Neven S.8
- Fyfe, John C.9
- Jahn, Alexandra7
- Holland, Marika10
- Hunke, Elizabeth11
- Iovino, Doroteaciro12
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Khosravi, Narges13
- Gurvan, Madec14
- Massonnet, François15
- O'Farrell, Siobhan16
- Petty, Alek17
- Rana, Arun15
- Roach, Lettie18
- Rosenblum, Erica19
- Rousset, Clement20
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Semmler, Tido13
- Stroeve, Julienne21
- Toyoda, Takahiro22
- Tremblay, Bruno23
- Tsujino, Hiroyuki24
- Vancoppenolle, Martin20
- 1. Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
- 2. Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory
- 3. Met Office Hadley Centre
- 4. Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
- 5. Norwegian Meteorological Institute
- 6. Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute
- 7. University of Colorado Boulder
- 8. University of Oxford
- 9. Environment and Climate Change Canada
- 10. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder
- 11. Los Alamos National Laboratory
- 12. Centro Euro‐Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici
- 13. Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
- 14. Sorbonne Université
- 15. Georges Lematre Centre for Earth and Climate Research
- 16. CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
- 17. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
- 18. University of Washington
- 19. Centre for Earth Observation Science, University of Manitoba
- 20. Sorbonne Universitié
- 21. University College London
- 22. Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency
- 23. Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, McGill University
- 24. Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Japan
Description
Abstract:
We examine CMIP6 simulations of the Arctic sea‐ice area and volume. We find that CMIP6 models produce a wide spread of mean Arctic sea‐ice area, capturing the observational estimate within the multimodel ensemble spread. The CMIP6 multimodel ensemble mean provides a more realistic estimate of the sensitivity of September Arctic sea‐ice area to a given amount of anthropogenic CO2 emissions and to a given amount of global warming, compared with earlier CMIP experiments. Still, most CMIP6 models fail to simulate at the same time a plausible evolution of the sea‐ice area and of global mean surface temperature. In the vast majority of the available CMIP6 simulations, the Arctic Ocean becomes practically sea‐ice free (sea‐ice area <1 × 106 km2) in September for the first time before the Year 2050 in each of the four emission scenarios SSP1‐1.9, SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, and SSP5‐8.5 examined here.
Files
2019GL086749.pdf
Files
(2.4 MB)
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