Project deliverable Open Access
Doračić, B.; Knoefel, J.; Naber, N.
This deliverable analyses various technical scenarios of renewable prosumer integration to determine the full potential for the uptake of such technologies. Three general scenarios were developed with three different reference years (reference scenario: 2015, 2030, 2050; renewables scenario: 2030, 2050; and autarky scenario: 2030, 2050).
The Reference scenario ensures comparability with business as usual. The renewables scenario shows the impact of maximizing the energy production with renewable prosumer technologies and the Autarky scenario shows how storage technologies can improve self-sufficiency. In order to consider the future technology developments and trends in the energy sector, all the scenarios have been modelled for 2030 and 2050, while the base year has been set as 2015.
The scenarios are developed for different levels of use cases. In total 30 local technology deployment scenarios are analysed, along with the analysis of 28 countries and the EU. For the 30 local deployment scenarios in total 10 use cases were analysed. The use cases have been selected in such a way that a broad range of climate, geographical social and political conditions are considered so that the results could be replicated to similar cases throughout Europe.