Link between autumnal Arctic Sea ice and Northern Hemisphere winter forecast skill

Plain Language Summary:

There is a broad range of stakeholders that could benefit from Northern Hemisphere, midlatitude winter climate predictions from dynamical forecast systems. However, a widespread use is currently hindered by important forecast system limitations. The results from this study suggest that autumnal Arctic sea ice state may have an important impact on winter climate forecast capacity in parts of Eurasia. We further show that large ensembles of simulations can be further exploited, by identifying the members with a better representation of certain processes, in this case the teleconnection between Arctic sea ice and the atmospheric circulation, to enhance the prediction skill of temperature and precipitation over the continents. Exploring this approach for other regions and seasons can provide a possible pathway towards more human-relevant seasonal climate predictions.