Planned intervention: On Wednesday April 3rd 05:30 UTC Zenodo will be unavailable for up to 2-10 minutes to perform a storage cluster upgrade.
Published February 5, 2020 | Version 0.1
Poster Open

Climate change effects on aflatoxins in the dairy supply chain

  • 1. Wageningen Food Safety Research

Description

Climate change is estimated to result into increased temperatures and rainfall in general, with more drought periods and heavy showers, in Europe. These effects are expected to affect the presence of aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) in maize grown in Europe, and might impact aflatoxin M1 (AFM1) in milk as well.

Three different climate models, one AFB1 forecasting model, and five transfer models, as published in literature, were used. Climate models considered were DMI, ETHZ, METO with 30 simulated years for 2030, and data from 2005-2017 as the baseline. Monte Carlo simulation with 10000 iterations was used to account for uncertainty and variation in input model parameters.

Files

Poster_WMFBelfast_ClimateChange_Afla.pdf

Files (350.7 kB)

Name Size Download all
md5:109133f46ec5c7518f29938607f7153b
350.7 kB Preview Download

Additional details

Related works