Set of European CO2 and CO emission grids representing emission uncertainties

This dataset was prepared by TNO as a contribution to the H2020 project CHE and the H2020 project VERIFY. The basis is a high-resolution (~1x1 km) emission inventory providing CO₂ and CO (from fossil fuels and biofuels separately) over western Europe (2ºW - 19ºE, 47ºN - 56ºN). The reported emissions by European countries to UNFCCC (CO₂) and to EMEP/CEIP (CO) have been used and where needed gap-filled or replaced with emission data from the GAINS model. These country-level emissions are disaggregated in space using a consistent spatial distribution methodology, whereas large point sources are listed with their exact locations. This approach is similar to the one described by Kuenen et al., (ACP, 2014). Emissions are reported per GNFR sector, with an extra split for road transport.

The emission grids that are part of this dataset are a variation on the base grid, representing the uncertainty in the emission data. Each grid is equally plausible. The grids have been created using a Monte Carlo approach. The uncertainties in the underlying data used to create the base grid (emissions: activity data and emission factors, spatial proxies) have been collected (either from country reports or based on expert judgement). Through the Monte Carlo simulation these uncertainties, taking into account error correlations between some sub-sectors, are combined to create ten new emission grids. The spread in emissions between these emission maps gives an indication of the uncertainty in the emissions.

The grid files (in .csv and .nc format) contain annual total emissions per grid cell for the year 2015. A separate file has been prepared for each ensemble member in the Monte Carlo simulation (indicated with M). The unit in the files is kg/yr.

A detailed description of the Monte Carlo simulation is presented in:

Super, I., Dellaert, S. N. C., Visschedijk, A. J. H., and Denier van der Gon, H. A. C.: Uncertainty analysis of a European high-resolution emission inventory of CO₂ and CO to support inverse modelling and network design, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2019-696, in review, 2019.

N.B. It is important to note that 10 maps are not sufficient to describe the sometimes complex uncertainty structures, for example in the case of lognormal uncertainty distributions. The interpretation of the uncertainty based on these 10 maps should therefore be done with care.

NB. Despite efforts to prevent negative emissions to occur in the grid maps, some negative values are still present. In local studies this might cause some issues, and we recommend to set negative emissions to zero in those cases.