Published October 29, 2015 | Version v1
Journal article Open

The present and future disease burden of hepatitis C virus infections with today's treatment paradigm – volume 3

Creators

  • 1. Center for Disease Analysis (CDA), Louisville, CO, USA;
  • 2. Department of Internal Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
  • 3. National Hepatitis Program, Ministry of Public Health, Beirut, Lebanon
  • 4. Division of Hepatobiliary, Department of Internal Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Dr. Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital, University of Indonesia, Jakarta, Indonesia; Digestive Disease and GI Oncology Center, Medistra Hospital, Jakarta, Indonesia
  • 5. Central Outpatient Clinic, Saint Laszlo Hospital, Budapest, Hungary
  • 6. Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
  • 7. Tartu University Hospital, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia;
  • 8. Department of Preventive Medicine, Ministry of Health, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
  • 9. Clinic of Gastroenterology, University of Medicine 'Victor Babes', Timisoara, Romania
  • 10. Department of Liver and Small Bowel Transplantation, King Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research Centre, Alfaisal University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
  • 11. Ziauddin University, Karachi, Pakistan
  • 12. Rashid Hospital, Dubai Health Authority, Dubai, UAE
  • 13. Abu Dhabi Health Services Company, Abu Dhabi, UAE
  • 14. Communicable Diseases Department, Health Authority Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, UAE;
  • 15. Health Regulation Division, Health Authority Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, UAE
  • 16. Ras Al Khaimah Hospital, Ras Al Khaimah, UAE;
  • 17. Dubai Health Authority, Dubai, UAE
  • 18. Mafraq Hospital, Abu Dhabi, UAE
  • 19. Hospitals Sector, Ministry of Health, Abu Dhabi, UAE;
  • 20. Shaikh Zayed Hospital, Lahore, Pakistan
  • 21. Baqiyatallah Research Center for Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases, Baqiyatallah University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Tehran, Iran; Middle East Liver Diseases Centre, Tehran, Tehran, Iran
  • 22. Department of Medicine, King Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research Centre, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia;
  • 23. Rashid Hospital, Dubai Health Authority, Dubai, UAE;
  • 24. Department of Pulmonary Medicine, Rashid Hospital, Dubai Health Authority, Dubai, UAE;
  • 25. Infection Control Department, Pauls Stradins Clinical University Hospital, Riga, Latvia
  • 26. Liver Disease Research Center, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia;
  • 27. Gastroenterology and Hepatology Unit, Medical Specialties Department, King Fahad Hospital, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia;
  • 28. King Abdulaziz Medical City and King Saud bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
  • 29. Department of Medicine, King Saud University Liver Disease Research Center, College of Medicine, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
  • 30. Zayed Military Hospital, Abu Dhabi, UAE
  • 31. Daman National Health Insurance Company, Abu Dhabi, UAE
  • 32. Seyal Medical Centre, Multan, Pakistan;
  • 33. Health Authority Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, UAE
  • 34. Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Landspitali – The National University Hospital of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland
  • 35. Division of Infectious Diseases, Faculty of Medicine, American University of Beirut Medical Center, Beirut, Lebanon;
  • 36. Gujranwala Liver Foundation, Siddiq Sadiq Hospital, Gujranwala, Pakistan;
  • 37. Department of Medicine, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Korea;
  • 38. Al Ain Hospital, Al Ain, UAE
  • 39. Division of Hepatobiliary, Department of Internal Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Dr. Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital, University of Indonesia, Jakarta, Indonesia;
  • 40. Gastroenterology Department, Saint George Hospital, University of Balamand, Beirut, Lebanon
  • 41. Abu Dhabi Police, Abu Dhabi, UAE
  • 42. Postgraduate Medical Institute, Khyber Medical University, Peshawar, Pakistan; Government Lady Reading Hospital, Peshawar, Pakistan
  • 43. Landspitali – The National University Hospital of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland;
  • 44. Department of Gastroenterology & Hepatology, Lady Reading Hospital, Peshawar, Pakistan
  • 45. Center of Gastroenterology & Hepatology, Fundeni Clinical Institute, Bucharest, Romania
  • 46. Faculty of Medicine, School of Health Sciences, Landspitali – The National University Hospital of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland;
  • 47. Clinic for Infectious Diseases and Febrile Illnesses, University Medical Centre, Ljubljana, Slovenia;
  • 48. Center for Disease Analysis (CDA), Louisville, CO, USA
  • 49. The Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales Australia, Sydney, NSW, Australia; The Australian Research Centre in Sex, Health and Society, La Trobe University, Melbourne, Vic., Australia
  • 50. The Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
  • 51. Division of Hepatobiliary, Department of Internal Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Dr. Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital, University of Indonesia, Jakarta, Indonesia
  • 52. Liver Transplantation, King Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research Centre, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
  • 53. Hepatology Center of Buda, Budapest, Hungary
  • 54. Department of Gastroenterology, Somogy County Kaposi Mor Teaching Hospital, Kaposvar, Hungary; First Department of Medicine, University of Pecs, Pecs, Hungary;
  • 55. Lebanese American University Medical Center, Rizk Hospital, Beirut, Lebanon
  • 56. Department of Hepatology, Infectology Center of Latvia, Riga, Latvia; Department of Infectology and Dermatology, Riga Stradins University, Riga, Latvia;
  • 57. Landspitali – The National University Hospital of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland; Icelandic Cancer Registry, Reykjavik, Iceland; The Faculty of Medicine, Landspitali – The National University Hospital of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland;
  • 58. Division of Infectious Disease, Landspitali – The National University Hospital of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland
  • 59. Department of Internal Medicine, Soon Chun Hyang University Bucheon Hospital, Bucheon, Korea;
  • 60. Digestive Disease Institute, Cleveland Clinic Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, UAE;
  • 61. Centre of Hepatology, Gastroenterology, and Dietetics, Faculty of Medicine, Vilnius University, Vilnius, Lithuania; Department of Biomechanics, Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, Vilnius, Lithuania;
  • 62. Department of Gastroenterology, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea;
  • 63. Faculty of Medicine, School of Health Sciences, Landspitali – The National University Hospital of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland; Department of Virology, Landspitali – The National University Hospital of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland;
  • 64. Liver and Pancreatobiliary Diseases Research Center, Digestive Diseases Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  • 65. Asian Institute of Medical Science (AIMS), Hyderabad, Sindh, Pakistan;
  • 66. Liver and Pancreatobiliary Diseases Research Center, Digestive Diseases Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran;
  • 67. Divisions of Infectious Diseases and Clinical Microbiology, Lebanese American University Medical Center Rizk Hospital, Beirut, Lebanon;
  • 68. Division of Gastroenterology, American University of Beirut Medical Center, Beirut, Lebanon
  • 69. Eijkman Institute for Molecular Biology, Jakarta, Indonesia; Department of Hepatitis & Emerging Infectious Diseases, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
  • 70. Department of Gastroenterology, Fatima Memorial Hospital College of Medicine and Dentistry, Lahore, Pakistan;
  • 71. Sub-Directorate for Gastrointestinal Infection, Diarrheal Diseases, and Hepatitis, Directorate of Direct Transmitted Disease Control, Disease Control & Environmental Health, Ministry of Health, Jakarta, Indonesia;
  • 72. Directorate of Direct Transmitted Disease Control, Disease Control & Environmental Health, Ministry of Health, Jakarta, Indonesia
  • 73. Pakistan Medical Research Council, Islamabad, Pakistan;
  • 74. Gastroenterology Department, Saint George Hospital, University of Balamand, Beirut, Lebanon;
  • 75. Khawar Clinic, Sahiwal, Pakistan;
  • 76. Department of Gastroenterology, Military Hospital, Rawalpindi, Pakistan;
  • 77. iver Disease Research Center, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia;
  • 78. Department of Hepatology and Gastroenterology, School of Medical Science, Saint Joseph University, Beirut, Lebanon
  • 79. Jinnah Memorial Hospital, Rawalpindi, Pakistan; Yusra Medical College, Rawalpindi, Pakistan
  • 80. Allama Iqbal Medical College, Lahore, Pakistan;
  • 81. Centre for Health Security and Communicable Disease Control, Directorate of Health in Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland
  • 82. Division of Infectious Disease, Landspitali – The National University Hospital of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland;
  • 83. Centre of Hepatology, Gastroenterology, and Dietetics, Faculty of Medicine, Vilnius University, Vilnius, Lithuania
  • 84. Division of Hepatobiliary, Department of Internal Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Dr. Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital, University of Indonesia, Jakarta, Indonesia; Klinik Hati Prof. Ali Sulaiman, Jakarta, Indonesia;
  • 85. Health Funding Department, Enaya Insurance Company, Abu Dhabi, UAE;
  • 86. Department of Medicine, Tawam Hospital, Al Ain, UAE;
  • 87. Department of Epidemiology, Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Institute of Biomedical and Health Sciences, Hiroshima University, Hiroshima, Japan;
  • 88. Pharmacy Department, Tawam Hospital, Al Ain, UAE
  • 89. Postgraduate Medical Institute, Lahore General Hospital, Lahore, Pakistan; Doctors Hospital and Medical Center, Lahore, Pakistan;
  • 90. Pakistan Society of Gastroenterology, Karachi, Pakistan
  • 91. Department of Medicine, Rawalpindi Medical College, Rawalpindi, Pakistan; Department of Medicine, Holy Family Hospital, Rawalpindi, Pakistan;
  • 92. Centre of Hepatology, Gastroenterology, and Dietetics, Faculty of Medicine, Vilnius University, Vilnius, Lithuania;
  • 93. Department of Internal Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Indonesia, Jakarta, Indonesia
  • 94. haukat Khanum Memorial Cancer Hospital & Research Centre, Lahore, Pakistan;
  • 95. Dow Medical College, Karachi, Pakistan

Description

The total number, morbidity and mortality attributed to viraemic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections change over time making it difficult to compare reported estimates from different years. Models were developed for 15 countries to quantify and characterize the viraemic population and forecast the changes in the infected population and the corresponding disease burden from 2014 to 2030. With the exception of Iceland, Iran, Latvia and Pakistan, the total number of viraemic HCV infections is expected to decline from 2014 to 2030, but the associated morbidity and mortality are expected to increase in all countries except for Japan and South Korea. In the latter two countries, mortality due to an ageing population will drive down prevalence, morbidity and mortality. On the other hand, both countries have already experienced a rapid increase in HCV‐related mortality and morbidity. HCV‐related morbidity and mortality are projected to increase between 2014 and 2030 in all other countries as result of an ageing HCV‐infected population. Thus, although the total number of HCV countries is expected to decline in most countries studied, the associated disease burden is expected to increase. The current treatment paradigm is inadequate if large reductions in HCV‐related morbidity and mortality are to be achieved.

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