Spatially Explicit Demographic Projections for Brazilian Metropolitan Areas by 2020 and 2030

Simulation models coupled with Geographic Information Systems are now applied to several areas and have great potential for demographic studies. Demographic projections can tell us “how much we will be”, but when coupled with GIS tools these projections can add the ability to show “where we will be”. This paper simulates the growth of urban areas, the resident population, and their households for the Brazilian Metropolitan Regions of São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Belo Horizonte, Brasilia, and Belém for 2020 and 2030. Based on demographic data measured between 2000 and 2010, and the mapping of urban areas through satellite images between 2000 and 2016, we used cellular automata models coupled with GIS to simulate future scenarios of population and urban growth. Our results suggest a decrease in the growth rate of urban areas despite the population and household growth in the coming decades. These trends are indicative of increasing intra-urban density, possibly reflected in the increase in building verticalization. Population is projected to grow at a slower pace than households, reflecting a decrease in the number of inhabitants per household in the study areas.