METHODOLOGY OF PRODUCTION PLANNING OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS IN THE CONTEXT OF FOOD SUPPLY OF THE REGION

Current conditions and problems of foreign policy determine the problem of food provision for the population as the most important. This problem is of paramount strategic importance for the country, since food security is one of the main indicators of the quality of life. Agriculture is faced with the task of determining the volume of production, taking into account the level of monetary incomes, purchasing power, effective demand for agricultural products, raw materials and food, the production potential of agriculture and manufacturing in the region, the dynamics of the price of agricultural products and the availability of spare products. As a tool for agricultural production planning, it is proposed to use a one-dimensional time series model and construct an additive time series model. As a result, the authors calculated three variants of the forecast of consumption of the main types of food products, which take into account: scientifically based nutrition norms; methodological recommendations for calculating the subsistence level in the regions of the Russian Federation; actual level of consumption. The calculations showed a high degree of reliability of the planned indicators and the availability of an acceptable level of income. The proposed methods allow planning the production, import and consumption of some types of agricultural products.