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Published June 3, 2015 | Version v1
Journal article Open

Utilization of LARS of Meteorological Parameters in Golestan Province of Iran

Creators

  • 1. Department of Civil Engineering, Ferdowsi University, Mashhad, Iran
  • 2. Department of Civil Engineering, Tabriz University, Tabriz, Iran
  • 3. Department of Civil Engineering, University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

Description

The impact of climate change on hydrologic design and management of hydro systems could be one of the important challenges faced by future practicing hydrologists and water resource managers. Issues such as risk, reliability and robustness of water resources systems under different climate change scenarios were addressed in the past. Also Changes in temperature and precipitation patterns have serious impacts on the quantity and quality of water supply. Because of the increasing demand for water, studying th change and its impacts on water resources is necessary. To predict the climate change based on the General Circulation Models (GCM), the successful downscaling tool of LARS is applied. This stochastic weather generator downscaled the climate change of Hashemabd synoptic station in the Golestan province of Iran by using the HADCM3 model and emission scenarios in the period of 2011-2040. A real example is presented to illustrate the applicability of a LARS WG Model for generating these parameters and direction of climate change. The results show increase in solar radiation and decrease in precipitation almost in all of the months, also not changing in minimum and maximum temperatures. The results show that, in general, LARS-WG model performance in meteorological variables modeling is appropriate and could advise the decision makers to take suitable actions in securing the water supply and it can be used to recover data station or to extend the data to the future period. Also it can be used in the assessment of future climate of province in a local scale. The impact of climate change on hydrologic design and management of hydro systems could be one of the important challenges faced by future practicing hydrologists and water resource managers. Issues such as risk, reliability and es systems under different climate change scenarios were addressed in the past. Also Changes in temperature and precipitation patterns have serious impacts on the quantity and quality of water supply. Because of the increasing demand for water, studying the potential climate change and its impacts on water resources is necessary. To predict the climate change based on the General Circulation Models (GCM), the successful downscaling tool of LARS-WG is applied. This stochastic weather generator downscaled the climate change of Hashemabd synoptic station in the Golestan province of Iran by using the HADCM3 model and emission 2040. A real-life case study example is presented to illustrate the applicability of a LARS-enerating these parameters and direction of climate change. The results show increase in solar radiation and decrease in precipitation almost in all of the months, also not changing in minimum and maximum temperatures. The WG model performance in meteorological variables modeling is appropriate and could advise the decision makers to take suitable actions in securing the water supply and it can be used to recover data station or so it can be used in the assessment of future climate of province in a local scale.

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