The Tinker AFB tornadoes of March 1948

During March of 1948 Tinker Air Force Base was hit directly by two tornadoes during a period of only five days. The first tornado was the most destructive, to that point, ever to occur in Oklahoma. The second storm caused considerable additional damage and was remarkable in another, more significant, way. The first operational tornado forecast had been issued by Air Force Officers E. J. Fawbush and R. C. Miller a few hours before the tornado moved across the base. This extremely unusual meteorological situation, two tornadoes hitting the same location within five days, coupled with the fortuitous forecast of the event, had a profound impact on the evolution of operational severe weather forecasting in the United States. These events eventually stimulated the initiation of public severe thunderstorm forecasting by the Weather Bureau. Miller often presented anecdotal accounts of the events leading up to the landmark forecast, for example, in seminars and interviews during a visit to the National Severe Storms Laboratory during March 1994. He often stressed that the remarkable similarity of the synoptic settings on 21 and 25 March 1948 helped give him and Fawbush the courage to issue the now famous forecast. In this paper the synoptic environments that led to the two tornado occurrences at Tinker are analyzed and discussed. There were indeed similarities; however, it is surprising how different many aspects of the storm settings actually were. Similarities and important differences are illustrated with a series of synoptic surface and upper-air charts. It is likely that development of a base severe weather plan following the tornado disaster of 20 March, in addition to the presence and exhortations of General F. S. Borum at the base weather station on 25 March, provided as great a motivation for the first tornado forecast as did the similarity of the synoptic settings.