Climate model simulations of the observed early-2000s hiatus of global warming

Accounting for natural decadal variability allows better prediction of short-term trends. This study looks at the ability of individual models, which are in phase with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, to simulate the current global warming slowdown. The authors highlight that the current trend could have been predicted in the 1990s with this technique and the need for consistent hindcast skills to allow reliable decadal predictions.