OPTION FOR PREDICTING THE CZECH REPUBLIC'S FOREIGN TRADE TIME SERIES AS COMPONENTS IN GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

This paper analyses the time series observed for the foreign trade of the Czech Republic (CR) and predictions in such series with the aid of the SARIMA and transfer-function models. Our goal is to find models suitable for describing the time series of the exports and imports of goods and services from/to the CR and to subsequently use these models for predictions in quarterly estimates of the gross domestic product (GDP) component resources and utilization. As a result we get suitable models with a time lag, and predictions in the time series of the CR exports and imports several months ahead.