Report on the observed climate, projected climate, and projected biodiversity changes for Kluane National Park and Reserve of Canada under differing levels of warming

Kluane National Park is among the top 7% of all non-marine protected areas, globally. The higher elevations of the park are projected to be resilient to climate change, even at 4°C. However, lower areas of the park, along waterways, are projected to require increasing levels of adaptation effort as warming levels exceed 2°C. Averaged over the entire area of this park, with 4°C warming (global, above pre-industrial), the area is projected to remain climatically suitable for 79% of its terrestrial biodiversity (fungi, plants, invertebrates, and vertebrates), with 61.2% of its area remaining an overall refugia (remaining climatically suitable for >75% of the species) for biodiversity. If warming levels were held to 2°C, 85% of the area would remain a climatic refugia and the area would remain climatically suitable for 91% of its terrestrial biodiversity.

Between 1961-1990 and 1991-2020 the average monthly temperature has increased by 0.3° - 2.5°C (December). With warming levels of 2.0°C the new average monthly temperature in April-October is equivalent to that only seen 1 in 3 years in 1961-1990, except for June – July having a new average temperature equivalent to that experienced 1 in 20 years. Nine months have seen decreases in precipitation with the rest seeing little change or increases. Models project that all months will become wetter. The number of months classified as being in severe drought have gone up by more than half between 1961-1990 and 1986-2015. Under the climate change scenarios examined the number of months in severe drought are projected to decline to 4°C at which point they are projected to increase. The number of months in a waterlogged state are projected to increase substantially at all warming levels.   

Biodiversity adaptation options generally allow for business-as-usual conservation, especially at higher elevations, taking into account changes in extreme events. However, lower elevations along waterways would need increasing levels of adaptation effort, especially with warming levels of 2°C and above.