D3.2. End-of-Project KGSIR on interaction of ocean heat uptake and radiative feedback change via SST-pattern change

Work Package: WP3

Deliverable number: D3.2

Deliverable title: End-of-Project KGSIR on interaction of ocean heat uptake and radiative feedback change via SST-pattern change

Key messages:

• Post 1980 the Earth warmed with a configuration of SST patterns (cooling in the eastern Pacific and Southern Ocean) that results in feedbacks that are uncorrelated with – and indicating much lower equilibrium climate sensitivity than—that expected for long-term CO2 increase.
• Satellite observations of changes in top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes since 1985 are in agreement with Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) simulations forced with observed SST and sea-ice, and are suggestive of a relationship between the pattern effect and ocean heat uptake efficiency.
• The 2015/16 El-Nino had a substantial impact on the Earth's diagnosed feedback parameter, reducing it by ~25% due to a large warming of the eastern Pacific. Since then three La Nina's in a row have been observed. The impact of this on radiative feedback is yet to be assessed. Continuity of satellite record radiation budget crucial to monitoring this.

Cite as:

Andrews T., Mauritsen T., Olonscheck D., Smith D. and Toniazzo T. 2022. Interaction of ocean heat uptake and radiative feedback change via SST-pattern change over recent decades. Knowledge Gains: Summary and Implication Report. The CONSTRAIN Project. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.10125154.