Dataset: Evaluating permafrost definitions for global permafrost area estimates in CMIP6 climate models

This dataset corresponds to the following publication:
Steinert, N., J., et al. 2023: Evaluating permafrost definitions for global permafrost area estimates in CMIP6 climate models, Environmental Research Letters, 10.1088/1748-9326/ad10d7
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad10d7

Global permafrost regions are undergoing significant changes due to global warming, whose assessments often rely on permafrost extent estimates derived from climate model simulations. These assessments employ a range of definitions for the presence of permafrost, leading to inconsistencies in the calculation of permafrost area. This dataset contains permafrost area calculations using 10 different definitions for detecting permafrost presence based on either ground thermodynamics, soil hydrology, or air-ground coupling from an ensemble of 32 Earth System Models.

This dataset includes two file archives:
1. 32 CMIP6 models, 10 permafrost definitions, historical period (1850-2014), annual data
2. 32 CMIP6 models, 10 permafrost definitions, SSP5-85 period (2015-2100), annual data

This dataset represents source data for the following publication. Please refer to this reference for a more detailed description of the definitions used in this dataset:
Steinert, N., J., et al. 2023: Evaluating permafrost definitions for global permafrost area estimates in CMIP6 climate models, https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad10d7

The results show that variations between permafrost-presence definitions result in substantial differences of up to 18 million km2, where any given model could both over- or underestimate the present-day permafrost area. Ground-thermodynamic-based definitions are, on average, comparable with observations but are subject to a large inter-model spread. The associated uncertainty of permafrost area estimates is reduced in definitions based on ground-air coupling. However, their representation of permafrost area strongly depends on how each model represents the ground-air coupling processes. The definition-based spread in permafrost area can affect estimates of permafrost-related impacts and feedbacks, such as quantifying permafrost carbon changes. For instance, the definition spread in permafrost area estimates can lead to differences in simulated permafrost-area soil carbon changes of up to 28%. This dataset therefore supports an emphasis on the importance of consistent and well-justified permafrost-presence definitions for robust projections and accurate assessments of permafrost from climate model outputs.

For any questions regarding the dataset, please free feel to contact Norman J. Steinert (nste@norceresearch.no, normanst@ucm.es)