Effects of changing atmospheric circulation patterns on waterlogging potential in Southeast Europe

Waterlogging or inland flooding occurs when excess water accumulates in the soil, leading to
saturated conditions and reduced oxygen levels. Waterlogging affects lowlands, flat terrain and
alluvial plains with limited runoff and increased water accumulation, which is typical for large parts
of the Pannonian and Peripannonian regions of Hungary, Serbia and Croatia. These inundations
cause substantial problems, primarily in agriculture trough crop loss, soil degradation and
pollution, as well as damage to infrastructure and various socio-economic challenges.
Precipitation is the primary climatic factor that affects waterlogging, in combination with air
temperature, humidity, evaporation, and other local hydrogeological, pedological,
geomorphological and anthropogenic factors.
Changes in atmospheric circulation patterns influence the amount, intensity, and seasonality of
precipitation which determine the extent and duration and subsequent negative impact of inland
flooding.
Based on climate reanalysis data (ERA5) and regional climate models we examined precipitation
trends in the period from 1950 to 2022 and from 2023 to 2070. Having the most significant effect
on waterlogging the amount and intensity of precipitation in winter and spring season were
assessed in detail. While the models indicate generally less rainfall in the future, the seasonal
distribution and the increase in frequency of extreme precipitation events will favor the periodic
occurrence of waterlogging in the region in the comming decades. The results of this study can be
implemented in planning agricultural and water management activities.