Attribution of extreme rainfall associated with the Balkans floods of May 2014

In May 2014, the Balkan Region experienced exceptionally heavy rainfall. Between May 14 and
May 19, 2014, there was a devastating flood in Serbia, Croatia, and Bosnia & Herzegovina. The
event shattered a number of historical records and seriously endangered economies across the
region. The close proximity of human settlements, infrastructure (houses, buildings, bridges), and
agricultural land to flood plains further amplified the destructive effects. Although atmospheric
thermodynamic and dynamic processes were used to describe this exceptional rainfall event,
there was no mention of how climate change may have contributed to it. We show that the
probability of this brief and powerful event occurring without human-caused climate change were
incredibly low. Our research aims to demonstrate how climate change may have affected the
likelihood that this extreme rainfall event will occur as well as to outline the difficulties in doing so.
This was accomplished using the methods recommended by the World Weather Attribution (WWA)
group. We examine whether and how much human-caused climate change has affected the
likelihood and intensity of the rainfall over the Balkans as well as the peak 5-day precipitation in
order to achieve this. We consider both historical weather data and climate models with and
without anthropogenic forcing. The findings suggested that one of the key elements in
determining event likelihood calculations is domain selection. Given the current situation and the
possibility for further excessive rainfall over the Balkans, it is critical to enhance water
management and lessen vulnerability to extreme rainfall.