Risk assessment and forecasting of the epizootic situation with regard to Bovine Tuberculosis in Bulgaria

An epizootiological analysis has been performed and a risk assessment of bovine tuberculosis in Bulgaria for the period 1983-2012. The data analysis showed that 125 outbreaks were reported, most of them in the regions of Pleven (20 outbreaks), Dobrich (19), Shumen (19), Veliko Tarnovo (10), Silistra (10), Vidin (9) and Rousse (7). 
The average duration of one outbreak (the time period from its detection until eradication) is 4.5 (four and a half) years. The fastest eradication of an outbreak is within 1 year, and the longest outbreak was active for 16 years. A significant positive correlation has been found between the existence of tuberculosis in previous years and the detection of new outbreaks. No correlation was found between the percentage of suspicious animals and the number of outbreaks, the percentage of positive animals and the number of outbreaks, and between the number of animals in one farm and the number of outbreaks.