Risk profile of highly pathogenic avian influenza for Estonia

The present risk profile describes mainly the risk of introduction and spread of HPAI in Estonia.
The release assessment has revealed five main scenarios, which may lead to the introduction of the HPAI virus.
The probability of introduction of HPAI virus into Estonia by means of infected migratory birds is the highest (moderate) as bird migration is very intense in Estonia during the migration seasons. There is also a moderate probability of development of HPAI from circulating LPAI viruses in wild bird populations.
The rest factors have a very low probability regarding virus release, provided that HPAI virus is not spreading in the regions surrounding Estonia, and the restrictions on imports of birds and poultry products from risk areas are followed.
Exposure assessment shows that the probability of exposure of the local bird population is very high in case of introduction of HPAI by means of introduction of infected domestic birds into poultry farms or migration of infected wild birds (exposure of local wild population), as well as in case of transformation of LPAIV into HPAIV (exposure of wild population).
The exposure of poultry flocks through indirect contacts with initial outbreaks and the probability of the spread of the infection in the poultry population are moderate.
The consequence analysis shows that the outbreak of HPAI of any scale among domestic birds would have at least serious economic consequences for Estonia causing an export ban of live birds and poultry products. In case of the wider spread of the disease in Estonia the economic consequences would be severe. The impact of an outbreak on animal health at the country level would be serious, whereas environmental consequences would be significant as well.
Risk estimation. Although the overall probability of the outbreak of HPAI is low, the consequences of the outbreak would be serious or severe. As a result, the risk estimate for HPAI is moderate for Estonia.